The 2024 ATP Tour comes to an end with the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin, Italy. Eight of the best players in the world are battling for the last big trophy — and paycheck — of the year, as Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz, Casper Ruud, Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev are all in this competition. That list does exclude Novak Djokovic, who is taking time off to heal up and get ready for the 2025 Australian Open. But this is still a loaded field, so there will be a bunch of good matches. That said, I’m going to handicap the action daily. With that out of the way, keep reading for two best bets for Tuesday, November 12th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 840-826 (+35.48 units)
Alex De Minaur vs. Daniil Medvedev
It can be really easy to talk yourself into betting De Minaur just based on some of the narratives heading into this match. For starters, the Australian badly wanted to be a part of this field. While other players crawl to the finish line late in the year, De Minaur’s quarter-final run at the Rolex Paris Masters booked him a spot in this year-end event. And if the Australian didn’t get the job done in Bercy, he was prepared to enter a 250-level event the following week to try again. Getting to the ATP Finals is a huge milestone for certain players. So, being here means the world to De Minaur, and he badly wants to turn in a decent showing. The same can’t be said for Medvedev. He has openly talked about his lack of desire on the court, and he has looked lifeless the last two times we saw him play. The first of those was an embarrassing 6-0, 6-3 loss to Jannik Sinner at the 6 Kings Slam exhibition, and he then lost 6-4, 6-3 to Taylor Fritz in his first match in group play at this event. Realistically, this feels like a match in which only one of the two players really wants to compete.
Medvedev also happens to be a player that I’m very worried about moving forward. From 2020 to 2022, the Russian had a hold percentage of at least 86.3% in each of the three seasons. Medvedev was truly an elite server for years. But that number dipped to 84.7% last year. And while that might have looked like an outlier, it’s all the way down at 80.0% in 2024. Medvedev just isn’t that reliable with the ball on his racquet anymore. He doesn’t make as many first serves as he used to, he double-faults more often and he also serves up punishable balls when he does land his second serve. All of that is concerning in a meeting with De Minaur, who is one of the best returners in the world. The Australian will likely put a ton of pressure on the Medvedev serve in this match.
De Minaur also happens to be getting better and better as a server. He’s holding at 81.2% this year, which is the highest mark he has had since 2019. The Australian has done a good job of adding power to his serve, and he has also done the same from the forehand wing. Once strictly a defensive player, De Minaur is now capable of ripping shots from the forehand side and giving himself advantages in longer rallies. That’s something else that should favor him in this match. Both of these players like to grind out matches from the baseline, but Medvedev is in miserable form right now and his rally tolerance is nowhere close to where it needs to be. So, the Russian is more likely to miss late in extended rallies.
I can’t say it’d shock me if Medvedev finds some motivation and turns things around next season. He’s a very talented player and he’s one of the best strategists in the sport. But as of right now, it just looks like he’s losing steam at the top of the game and other players are catching up. De Minaur is one of those players. And when you look at the difference in motivation, along with the recent form and on-court matchup, it’s surprising to see that De Minaur is available at plus-money odds at some shops.
The cherry on top here is that there’s some reverse line movement on this match. According to our DraftKings Betting Splits, most of the action is on Medvedev to win this match. However, DraftKings has moved De Minaur from +110 at open to -105. So, the sharp money is coming in on the Australian. But that’s the beauty of having options. While one book has reverse line movement and a -105 price on De Minaur, another has +110 just sitting there.
Bet: De Minaur ML (+110 – 2 units)
Taylor Fritz vs. Jannik Sinner
This is somewhat risky. The stats show that Fritz is better at missing racquets, as his ace rate is higher than Sinner’s. However, I’m interested in seeing what the ace totals look like in a match between two top-10 players, in very fast conditions. Sinner’s ace rate on hard courts stays pretty much the same against top-10 opponents, but Fritz’s goes from 12.6% against everybody to 11.6% against top-10 opponents. And this isn’t just a top-10 opponent. This is Jannik freaking Sinner, the best player on the planet. The Italian has the third-best hard-court break percentage of any player on tour over the last 52 weeks, and his 8.0% Ace Rate Against is rock solid. I know Fritz had 10 aces to Sinner’s six at the US Open, but I think it’ll be much closer this time around. We’re going from a home-court advantage for Fritz to a home-court advantage for Sinner. And Sinner served up eight aces in two sets against De Minaur last match. Only five players on tour have a lower Ace Rate Against than the Australian.
Bet: Sinner +1.5 Aces (-125 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
