Turin sets the stage for the 2025 ATP Finals, where the world’s best clash for season-ending supremacy and bettors hunt for value in every match. Home favorite — and defending champion — Jannik Sinner headlines a loaded field that includes Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, Alex de Minaur, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Lorenzo Musetti. Unfortunately, Novak Djokovic decided not to play after winning a title in Athens over the weekend.
We’re almost through round-robin play at this fast indoor tournament. However, we’re still looking for unique angles for side, total, and prop bettors looking to close the tennis year on a high note. Let’s get into some picks for Thursday, November 13.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts his tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Alex de Minaur vs. Taylor Fritz
De Minaur isn’t completely out of this thing yet. If he beats Fritz in straight sets, he would make the semifinals with an Alcaraz win over Musetti. Also, if de Minaur beats Fritz in three sets, he can get in with an Alcaraz win over Musetti in three sets. However, with Alcaraz being a massive favorite to beat Musetti, de Minaur really can’t leave anything to chance. He needs to focus on the first of those two options. That said, de Minaur really needs to come out and look to win this thing convincingly. And while I’m not sure he’ll find a way to do that, I do think we’ll see a really strong effort in Set 1 because you can’t win in straights without taking the first. That’s why I’m putting a little something on the Australian to take the opening set at +163.
Fritz has had the recent head-to-head edge over de Minaur, including a straight-set win in an indoor hard court match in the Davis Cup in 2024. However, in the nine matches these two have played against one another, de Minaur has won the first set six times.
De Minaur’s ability to return just makes him a tough matchup for Fritz. He’s going to get a lot of the American’s serves back, and he’s also going to dig in and make Fritz play a ton of extra balls. If Fritz isn’t striking the ball well, hitting big, accurate shots when he has chances to do so, de Minaur will steal some points. It won’t be quite like the Alcaraz match, but de Minaur has a similar ability to demand that his opponents play great tennis.
Bet: de Minaur To Win Set 1 (+163 – 0.5 units)
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Musetti still has an outside shot at making the semifinals. However, whether he has to win a set or win the match, it’s hard to imagine him keeping this thing tight. Musetti won the first time these two played, defeating Alcaraz in a three-set war on clay, in Hamburg. However, that was all the way back in 2022. Alcaraz has won six straight against Musetti, and seven of the 15 sets they have played over that streak have been 6-2 or worse. Alcaraz is just a tough matchup for the Italian, as he has the same ability to grind but adds in the firepower required to easily put points away. He’s also much better as both a server and a returner.
Musetti is also extremely fatigued coming into this match. He looked like he was completely out of gas against de Minaur last match, but the Australian got tight late in the match. Musetti also got a second wind with the Italian crowd cheering him on. I’m not sure we’ll see any of that here, and I think a lopsided Alcaraz set will be the difference in helping the Spaniard cover the big spread. Honestly, I wouldn’t even be stunned if we see Musetti steal a tight Set 1, then Alcaraz absolutely cruises in Set 2 and 3. That’s what happened when they played in Monte-Carlo this year. It’s also similar to what happened when they played at Roland Garros. Musetti throws everything he has into these matches, and Alcaraz can crush him by waiting it out.
Bet: Alcaraz -4.5 Games (-119)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
