Australian Open predictions and best bets for Day 11 – January 27-28
We’re fully in the swing of the 2026 Australian Open, as the top players in the world are competing in quarterfinal action in Melbourne Park for the season’s first major. At VSiN, we’re covering every important tournament, providing you with futures and daily tennis best bets. That continues with some tennis picks for Day 11 of the action, so keep reading for a few of my favorite plays for January 27 and 28. Also, bookmark our Australian Open tennis hub, where you’ll get all of my stories and some additional video content!
I also post more tennis plays on the Pro Picks page. I like to see how odds are moving throughout the day, so I occasionally add picks after posting these columns. That said, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday. With that in mind, if you like betting this sport, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Ben Shelton vs. Jannik Sinner
One of my go-to plays whenever Shelton and Sinner go to battle is the Over on 0.5 tiebreakers. This will be the 10th meeting between these two players, and there has been at least one tiebreaker in eight of their previous nine matches. That includes their meeting at the Nitto ATP Finals a couple of months ago.
These are just two of the best servers on the planet, with Sinner being first in the world in hold percentage (91.4%) over the last 52 weeks and Shelton being eighth (86.5%). Shelton is also a weak returner, so there should be multiple sets in which Sinner cruises through his service games. We’ll just need Shelton to do so against one of the best returners on the planet, but he’s a big-match player and will be competing in server-friendly conditions. I like our chances.
Pick: Over 0.5 Tiebreakers (-138)
Other Leans
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic: I have a play to win 2.5 units on Djokovic to win Quarter 3, so I’m not looking to get involved in this match. However, if I had to play something here, I’d be looking to the Djokovic side. Whether that’s throwing Djokovic in a moneyline parlay or taking the Serbian -1.5 sets, I do think this is a match he’ll win — and potentially do so comfortably. I absolutely love Musetti, but there’s some real demons when he gets out there and takes on Djokovic. It seems seems like no matter how poorly Djokovic is playing, he’s capable of getting over the finish line against the Italian. Well, Djokovic isn’t playing poorly right now. He’s actually in tremendous form. On top of that, he just got a rare mid-tournament bye because Jakub Mensik withdrew before their fourth-round match. That said, Musetti will be dealing with a fully-rested 24-time Grand Slam champion.
Also, when looking at Tennis Insight’s 52 week averages in non-Slams, Djokovic has Musetti beat when it comes to Serve Quality (8.4 vs. 7.8), Backhand Quality (8.0 vs. 7.6), and Conversion Score (72% vs. 69%). He’s a better server and attacker. They also have identical numbers when looking at forehands and returns, so there’s really no clear edge for Musetti outside of movement. And this is the Italian’s worst surface.
Elena Rybakina vs. Iga Swiatek: While Swiatek is probably better than Rybakina as an all-around player, I’m not sure that’s the case on hard courts. Over the last 52 weeks, Rybakina actually has a better winning percentage than the Pole (76.5% vs. 74.5%), and we just saw these two meet at the WTA Finals. Rybakina ended up winning that match 3-6, 6-1, 6-0 on her way to claiming the year-end title, and I have been very impressed with her play for a couple of months now.
I just think the serve will be too big of a factor here, with Rybakina having one of the best ones on the planet and Swiatek’s being harder to trust. The only reason I’m not playing this is because I have Rybakina to win the tournament. I don’t want any added exposure.
Jessica Pegula vs. Amanda Anisimova: I also have a play on Anisimova to win this tournament, so I’m not looking to add anything here. However, I would be on Anisimova if I didn’t have the future. While Pegula is 3-0 against Anisimova in this head-to-head series, it’s the latter that opened as a favorite. And despite a good amount of bets being on Pegula, there’s been some reverse line movement that suggests Anisimova is the sharper side. I like Anisimova’s ball-striking a little more, plus her serve is a bit better when she’s on.
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
