Australian Open predictions and best bets for Day 5 – January 21-22
The 2026 Australian Open begins this weekend, as the top players in the world are in Melbourne Park for the season’s first major. Well, at VSiN, we’re covering every important tournament, providing you with futures and daily tennis best bets. That continues with some tennis picks for Day 5 of the action, so keep reading for a few of my favorite plays for January 21 and 22. Also, bookmark our Australian Open tennis hub, where you’ll get all of my stories and some additional video content!
I also post more tennis plays on the Pro Picks page. I like to see how odds are moving throughout the day, so I occasionally add picks after posting these columns. That said, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday. With that in mind, if you like betting this sport, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Yibing Wu vs. Eliot Spizzirri
Spizzirri was able to beat Joao Fonseca last round, taking advantage of a banged-up version of the Brazilian to book a spot in the second round. However, while Fonseca wasn’t at his best in that match, a lot of it had to do with Spizzirri’s play. He is a relentless opponent when you’re not playing your best tennis, as he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, he’s competitive as hell, and he has very few holes in his game.
The American now has a meeting with Yibing in the second round, and this is a match I think he can win. Yibing, like Fonseca, is a player with some real natural ability, and he can hit the cover off the ball. However, he’s another player that can struggle with tough, physical matches. Spizzirri is going to try to drag him into the mud, and there’s a real chance the American emerges with a hard-fought win — especially if it ends up being a long match.
Spizzirri is also rapidly becoming a quality tour-level player. According to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations, his Performance Rating in the five matches he played before arriving in Melbourne was 7.60. That’s well above the tour average of 7.29. And his serving has been especially effective, which makes him dangerous when considering how good he is at stealing points and making life tough on opponents from the baseline.
Bet: Spizzirri ML (-125 – 1.5 units)
Marie Bouzkova vs. Iga Swiatek
You never really want to overreact to a slow start to the season, but Swiatek is a player that can really run hot and cold. Well, right now it seems like she’s leaning cold. At the United Cup, Swiatek lost two matches, including somewhat lopsided defeats at the hands of Belinda Bencic and Coco Gauff. It also took her a decider to beat Eva Lys, and her opening-round performance in Melbourne wasn’t impressive. Against an out-of-form Yue Yuan, Swiatek had to scratch and claw for a 7-6 (5), 6-3 victory.
Bouzkova might be a tricky opponent for Swiatek. The Pole has absolutely demolished her in their previous two meetings, but this version of Swiatek seems more prone to letdowns. She’s just a little shakier from the forehand wing than she used to be, and playing on quicker surfaces used to bring out the worst in her. Sure, a deep run at this event last year, along with a title at Wimbledon, might have changed all of that, but let’s see.
I’m grabbing Bouzkova to win seven games here. I’m also sprinkling her to win a set and win the match outright. If there’s one thing we know about Bouzkova it’s that she’s going to roll up her sleeves and fight. That should mean that Swiatek will have to play a ton of extra balls, which isn’t what she wants.
If Bouzkova is serving even remotely well, I think she makes this a match.
Bet: Bouzkova Over 6.5 Games Won (-120 – 1.5 units) & Bouzkova +1.5 Sets (+189 – 0.5 units) & Bouzkova ML (+600 – 0.25 units)
Jaume Munar vs. Casper Ruud
Janice Tjen vs. Karolina Pliskova
Last year, Ruud defeated Munar three times, improving to 5-1 in their career head-to-head series. One of the wins came in this very tournament, with Ruud emerging with a 6-3, 1-6, 7-5, 2-6, 6-1 victory. The two played another tight one in Dallas, with Ruud winning 6-2, 2-6, 7-6 (4). However, their most recent meeting, in Rome, ended with Ruud earning a straightforward 6-3, 6-4 victory. This is just a tough matchup for Munar, as Ruud is similarly solid in every aspect of the game. However, the Norwegian is a little better at everything. Also, Ruud has made some equipment changes that are supposed to make him a little more productive in quicker conditions, so he should theoretically be sharper this year than he was in 2025. And we already saw an awesome performance out of him, as he beat Alex de Minaur in straight sets in the United Cup. That was a “road win” against a better all-court grinder than Munar is. So, I expect Ruud to win this match.
As far as the other match goes, it’s hard not to like Tjen to beat Pliskova. Tjen finished the 2025 season with a 10-3 record at the WTA level, and she turned in some good results after the US Open. She enters this season with some serious momentum, and her straight-set win over Leylah Fernandez in the opening round was very impressive. Now, the only thing standing in the way of a third-round appearance is an older, over-the-hill Pliskova. The Czech still has a big serve and some baseline power, but she doesn’t move well enough to beat players that put a lot of balls in play.
PARLAY: Ruud ML & Tjen ML (-114 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
