Australian Open predictions and best bets for Day 6 – January 22-23
The 2026 Australian Open started last weekend, as the top players in the world are in Melbourne Park for the season’s first major. Well, at VSiN, we’re covering every important tournament, providing you with futures and daily tennis best bets. That continues with some tennis picks for Day 6 of the action, so keep reading for a few of my favorite plays for January 22 and 23. Also, bookmark our Australian Open tennis hub, where you’ll get all of my stories and some additional video content!
I also post more tennis plays on the Pro Picks page. I like to see how odds are moving throughout the day, so I occasionally add picks after posting these columns. That said, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday. With that in mind, if you like betting this sport, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Cameron Norrie vs. Alexander Zverev
There isn’t much from Norrie’s statistical profile that suggests he should be able to hang around in a match with Zverev. That’s true whether you’re looking at traditional numbers or some of the advanced stuff I like to utilize from TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations. However, the latter do suggest the southpaw is starting to play some good tennis again. Since arriving in Beijing after last year’s US Open, Norrie has mostly played above the tour-average level when looking at Performance Rating. Also, just looking through his 2026 numbers, his hold rate is way up from 2025, as he’s at 88.1% after finishing at 80.4% last year. And a productive serve should go a long way in this match.
Zverev is one of the best servers on the planet, so it’s important to be able to rack up holds when he’s on the other side of the net. Norrie should be able to do that here, and that’s ultimately why I think this match will go four or five sets.
While Zverev is 6-0 in this head-to-head series, the last two meetings between the two have been rather tight. In the 2024 Australian Open, Norrie actually pushed Zverev to five sets, with the German winning 7-6, 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 7-6 (3). Then, at Wimbledon that same year, Zverev earned a 6-4, 6-4, 7-6 (15) win over the British southpaw. Obviously, a straight-set win might not seem all that competitive. But any match with a tiebreaker is generally closer than it looks on the surface. And if Norrie can push Zverev to a tiebreaker or two here, I’ll feel good about his chances of getting on the board.
Zverev has actually looked a little shaky to start the 2026 season, and he dropped a set in each of his previous matches here. Gabriel Diallo was able to take the first from him, then Alexandre Muller was able to avoid getting straight-setted. That second match is one to keep an eye on here, as Norrie is somewhat similar to Muller. Both players are rather fearless and have pretty diverse skill sets. However, Norrie throws in the extra bonus of being a lefty with a looping forehand. He’ll be able to keep Zverev on his toes when targeting the German’s backhand. And when Zverev goes to Norrie’s flat, wonky-looking backhand, the Brit will be able to hit cross court into one of the shakier forehands in the men’s game.
Norrie is also one of the sport’s ultimate fighters, so he’s going to go down swinging. That’s always a nice little bonus. You always want the players you’re betting on to care.
Bet: Over 3.5 Sets (-137)
Francisco Cerundolo vs. Andrey Rublev
Cerundolo has a 3-1 record against Rublev, with the last two matches going the Argentine’s way. Cerundolo also had a bit of a stronger profile when looking at TennisViz’s numbers for the last 52 weeks, owning a better Performance Rating (7.79 vs. 7.67), Forehand Quality, (8.2 vs. 7.6), and Backhand Quality (7.3 vs. 6.9). However, last year was a down year for Rublev, who has looked more engaged to start 2026. And the conditions in Melbourne could end up playing into Rublev’s hands.
Rublev is just a much better server than Cerundolo, so picking up cheap points in these faster conditions favors the Russian in a big way. Also, utilizing a larger sample size of 2022-2025, Rublev’s numbers stack up much better to Cerundolo’s. In that time, in non-majors (TennisViz’s numbers don’t show Grand Slams), Rublev’s Forehand Quality is up at 8.2, his Backhand Quality is 7.2, and his Serve Quality (8.2) is way higher than Cerundolo’s was last year (7.4).
Rublev has also played a few more matches than Cerundolo this season, playing three in Hong Kong before heading to Australia. That means that he should be a little sharper than Cerundolo, who played only one before the Australian Open.
I just think there’s a good chance Rublev’s ability to go big from the baseline will rush Cerundolo a bit, leading to some errors and lapses in judgment. I also don’t think Cerundolo’s serve is good enough for him to hurt Rublev on these courts. That said, while there are plenty of reasons to back Cerundolo here, my gut tells me Rublev is the right call.
Bet: Rublev ML (-141)
Iva Jovic vs. Jasmine Paolini
There’s some serious sharp money coming in on Jovic. When looking at our VSiN tennis betting splits, at DraftKings Sportsbook, Paolini opened as a -178 favorite against Jovic. However, while most of the tickets and handle have come in on the Italian, Paolini is now down to -137. That’s some reverse line movement that really makes Jovic look like an enticing play, and she was already the more attractive side to begin with.
Paolini was able to beat Aliaksandra Sasnovich and Magdalena Frech in straight sets to open this tournament, but I’m not sure you can confidently say she’s performing like a top-10 player right now. She was the worst player at the WTA Finals towards the end of last season, by far. That came after a pretty poor run of form in the weeks leading up to that event, and I also wasn’t impressed with her at the United Cup. With that in mind, while Paolini is a tremendous player, she’s beatable right now. Well, if that’s the case, why can’t Jovic do the honors?
Jovic is coming off a run to the finals in Hobart, and she also went to the semis in Auckland before that. She’s now 9-2 since the start of 2026, so she’s in awesome form to start the year. She also has the type of game to play with Paolini. Jovic is poised, she has a pretty well-rounded game, and she’s a fighter. On top of that, she’s mature beyond her years. There’s a little Jess Pegula to her game, and she isn’t scared of the moment either.
I just think Jovic can hang with Paolini when it comes to longer exchanges, and she can even frustrate her a little. This will be one of the few situations in which Paolini won’t have full crowd support, and Jovic’s relentless game can be annoying enough.
Bet: Jovic ML (+122)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
