Australian Open predictions and best bets for Day 7 – January 23-24
We’re fully in the swing of the 2026 Australian Open, as the top players in the world are in Melbourne Park for the season’s first major. Well, at VSiN, we’re covering every important tournament, providing you with futures and daily tennis best bets. That continues with some tennis picks for Day 7 of the action, so keep reading for a few of my favorite plays for January 23 and 24. Also, bookmark our Australian Open tennis hub, where you’ll get all of my stories and some additional video content!
I also post more tennis plays on the Pro Picks page. I like to see how odds are moving throughout the day, so I occasionally add picks after posting these columns. That said, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday. With that in mind, if you like betting this sport, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Valentin Vacherot vs. Ben Shelton
Is anything we saw from Vacherot towards the end of 2025 real? The Monegasque pro shocked the world in winning the Rolex Shanghai Masters, beating Alexander Bublik, Tomas Machac, Tallon Griekspoor, Holger Rune, Novak Djokovic, and Arthur Rinderknech on his path to 1000-level glory. Vacherot is now out to prove to the world that he’s not a one-hit wonder, and he has done a decent job of it thus far. For starters, Vacherot followed his run in Shanghai up with a very close loss to Taylor Fritz in Basel. He then won three matches at the Rolex Paris Masters to wrap up 2025. Now, in 2026, Vacherot is off to a decent start, as he’s 4-3 and has booked a spot in the Round of 32 at a major. Let’s see if he can keep it going.
I’m not sure Vacherot will actually beat Shelton here, but I do think he’ll take a set. If there’s one thing about Vacherot that looks like it’s here to say, it’s his serve. He’s holding at 87.3% to start the 2026 season, and racking up quick holds will go a long way in a match like this. Shelton really isn’t much of a returner, so I’m confident Vacherot can play his way deep into some sets. From there, while I do think it’s likely Shelton moves on, I’d be surprised if Vacherot can’t get on the scoreboard.
I also like that Vacherot’s backhand looks like a really sturdy shot. You need that when you’re going cross court into Shelton’s booming forehand. If Vacherot can hold up from the backhand wing here, there’s a chance he ends up actually winning this thing. But my play is essentially for both of these guys to win a set.
By the way, before you scoff at this pick, it should be noted that Vacherot’s TennisViz Performance Rating in his last 15 non-Slam matches is 7.95; Shelton’s Performance Rating in non-Slam matches in 2025 was 7.70. There’s a level Vacherot can reach that is good enough to hang with Shelton.
Bet: Over 3.5 Sets (-143 – 1.5 units)
Marin Cilic vs. Casper Ruud
Tomas Machac vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Ruud’s girlfriend is set to give birth to their first child any day now, so there’s a chance the Norwegian has to leave Australia. He has made it clear that he’s not willing to miss that moment, and it’s hard to blame him. However, as long as Ruud is in Melbourne, he’s going to be a tough out. Ruud also happens to have a pretty damn beatable opponent in the third round. Cilic has turned back the clock with two tremendous performances to kick off this event, as he absolutely stomped Daniel Altmaier and Denis Shapovalov. However, defeating Ruud will be a completely different challenge. Unlike Altmaier, Ruud has the weapons required to win quick points against Cilic. And unlike Shapovalov, Ruud is solid enough from the baseline to expose Cilic’s lack of movement. The only issue with Ruud is that the moneyline price is a little out of control in this match. Fortunately, parlays are always on the table.
To get a better price on Ruud, I’m grabbing Musetti to beat Machac. I’m not sure the Italian is 100% healthy right now. He had to pull out of an exhibition against Alexander Zverev before this tournament, looking bothered by something that was troubling him in a loss to Alexander Bublik in the Hong Kong final. However, I do think he’s playing well enough to outlast Machac in a best-of-five match.
When combing through TennisViz’s non-Slam numbers from 2025, there’s just so much that Musetti did better than Machac. The Czech did have a minor edge in Serve Quality (7.9 vs. 7.8), and the two were dead even when it came to Backhand Quality (7.6 for both). But Musetti had him beat in Return Quality (7.4 vs. 7.1), Forehand Quality (8.6 vs. 7.0), Steal Score (36% to 31%), and Conversion Score (67%). Musetti simply should get into more of Machac’s service games, and he should have the edge from the baseline because of his ability to control points with the forehand. His superior ability to come away with unexpected points in longer rallies won’t hurt either.
I’m also still not ready to trust Machac’s fitness. His body has failed him too many times over the years, and I’m not sure one offseason is changing all of that. Also, if there’s any player that can break an opponent down, it’s Musetti. He’s one of the best defenders on tour, and he’s also superb when it comes to point construction. He’ll look to move Machac around and at least test the legs.
PARLAY: Ruud ML & Musetti ML (+129)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
