Australian Open predictions and best bets for Day 9 – January 25-26
We’re fully in the swing of the 2026 Australian Open, as the top players in the world are in Melbourne Park for the season’s first major. Well, at VSiN, we’re covering every important tournament, providing you with futures and daily tennis best bets. That continues with some tennis picks for Day 9 of the action, so keep reading for a few of my favorite plays for January 25 and 26. Also, bookmark our Australian Open tennis hub, where you’ll get all of my stories and some additional video content!
I also post more tennis plays on the Pro Picks page. I like to see how odds are moving throughout the day, so I occasionally add picks after posting these columns. That said, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday. With that in mind, if you like betting this sport, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Taylor Fritz vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Fritz is going to have a pretty big edge over Musetti when looking at the serve. According to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations, the American has an average Serve Quality of 8.8 in non-majors over the last 52 weeks, while Musetti’s is down at 7.8. However, Musetti’s a better returner (7.4 vs. 7.3), he’s better from the forehand (8.6 vs. 7.9) and backhand (7.6 vs. 7.5) wings, and he’s much better when it comes to playing defense; Musetti’s steal score is 36% and Fritz’s is 28%. With that in mind, Musetti is going to have a lot of ways that he can hurt Fritz, even if the American gets through his service games a little more comfortably.
Beyond the numbers, Musetti’s combination of shot variety and elite defense makes him a nightmare to play against. Facing the Italian is like going to war on the court, and his physicality could be a major issue for Fritz. Not only is Fritz currently dealing with knee tendinitis, but he also said that he’s having several other issues. And honestly, in his match against Stan Wawrinka, you were able to see him struggling when going to his backhand — with many noting he might be dealing with abdominal pain. Well, Musetti is going to move him around and demand the world of him as a competitor. I’m not sure Fritz is up for that right now.
If Musetti still has his legs after a five-set match against Tomas Machac last round, this is a match he should win. My gut tells me the conditioning will be alright for the Italian here, but I’m not sure that’ll be the case once we get to the quarterfinals.
Bet: Musetti ML (+116 – 1.5 units)
NOTE: Try to play this somewhere that’ll grade a retirement as action. You’ll want to end up in the green if Fritz retires at any point.
Casper Ruud vs. Ben Shelton
Shelton has looked really sharp to start this tournament, as he has straight-set wins over Ugo Humbert and Valentin Vacherot on his Melbourne resume. Ruud did beat Jaume Munar in straight sets in the second round, but he needed four to get by Marin Cilic. That’s a slight edge to Shelton when looking at the body of work for this event. However, Ruud has won two matches in a row against Shelton, and there’s a lot to like about the Norwegian when looking at this matchup.
While Shelton’s combination of weapons and athleticism make him brutal to play against on hard courts, Ruud will head to the court knowing that he has won the last two matches he has played against the American. Both were played in much slower conditions, so playing in a quicker setting should even things out a bit. However, I don’t see this match as a 58-42 proposition, which is what these odds imply in terms of percentage. I think it’s much closer to a genuine 50-50.
In 2025, when looking strictly at outdoor hard-court matches, these two had identical Performance Ratings at TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations. In 23 matches played in these specific conditions, Shelton’s Performance Rating was 7.72. That’s exactly where Ruud finished in 14 matches. Ruud also had Shelton beat when looking at both Forehand Quality (7.6 vs. 7.1) and Backhand Quality (7.6 vs. 6.7), and his Conversion Score (69%) was higher than the American’s (67%). That last one means that Ruud was a little more efficient when attacking during points.
Of course, Shelton is the better server between the two. There’s no denying that. Shelton’s Serve Quality was 8.6 in the span I looked at before, while Ruud’s was down at 8.1. However, I do think Ruud’s serve is a little underappreciated when looking at faster surfaces. There’s a reason he can be so dangerous as a server when playing on indoor hard courts, and I think we have seen a little bit of that in Melbourne so far. He’s holding in 96.0% of his service games, thriving with either the serve itself or the plus-one he delivers right after it.
As long as Ruud continues to consistently find the box on serve, I see this being a match that’ll be on his racquet. He’s going to control play from the back of the court, as he’s sturdier from both wings and does a really good job of setting points up. Shelton might have more pop, but Ruud isn’t lacking there. And the Norwegian has more control.
Bet: Ruud ML (+138)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
