In the 2025 Wimbledon semifinals, we’re set to see Iga Swiatek face Belinda Bencic. Swiatek hasn’t always been known for her grass-court ability, but she has found something on this surface. Now, she’s looking like a real threat to win her first major off clay since 2022. However, Bencic just knocked off Mirra Andreeva, and the Swiss has always been a tough player on grass. So, let’s get into some analysis with a Bencic vs. Swiatek betting preview.
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Belinda Bencic vs. Iga Swiatek Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Wednesday, July 9th at 1:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Swiatek -300, Bencic +235
Spread: Swiatek -4.5 Games (-105), Bencic +4.5 Games (-130)
Total: Over 21.5 Games (-115), Under 21.5 Games (-115)
How To Watch Belinda Bencic vs. Iga Swiatek
Where: All England Club in London, England
When: Thursday, July 10th
Channel: ESPN / ABC
Belinda Bencic vs. Iga Swiatek Predictions
While I have a future on Swiatek to win this tournament at +800, it’s hard to say this run has been expected. The Pole has always struggled in quicker conditions, and she has never really had success at Wimbledon. But things looked different when Swiatek made a run to the finals at Bad Homburg, and she has undoubtedly been the best player in London over the last two weeks. It seems as though she has figured out how to play on grass, as straight-set wins over Danielle Collins, Clara Tauson and Liudmila Samsonova, in power-friendly conditions, don’t happen by accident.
Swiatek has shown some serious growth in a number of different ways this week, but the way she has handled aggressive, free-swinging baseliners has been something else. Swiatek can occasionally struggle against players that have the power to push her around, rush her process and prevent her from setting her feet. She’s the one that wants to be in control, and some of her recent losses have featured her looking uncomfortable from the back of the court. Well, that hasn’t been the case this week. Swiatek just took down three sluggers in a row, and she’ll now feel really good about her chances of reaching the finals.
For as good as Bencic is as an all-court player, with a great mind for the game, she’s not the type of player that tends to give Swiatek problems. If the Pole has the edge in power, she’s nearly impossible to beat. The exceptions to that have been the elite athletes on the WTA Tour, like Mirra Andreeva and Coco Gauff, who can hang in rallies forever and wait out Swiatek errors. Bencic doesn’t have that same ability to grind, and we also haven’t seen as many droves of errors from Swiatek in this tournament. Perhaps she feels she’s playing with house money at SW19, where she really didn’t come into the tournament with any expectations. During clay season, she’s expected to win every single point, and she visibly wore that anxiety for months.
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Swiatek has also looked outrageously good as a server this tournament. According to OptaAce, Swiatek has won the highest percentage of first service points (77.4%) of anybody in the tournament, and the minimum there is two rounds. To be leading in that category, with that high of a mark, over five matches is insane. Meanwhile, Bencic can occasionally be a bit shaky with her serve, and Swiatek has the third-highest break percentage (43.1%) on tour over the last 52 weeks. That’s why this feels like a match that could get ugly.
Swiatek has also won two in a row against Bencic, and the most recent one was a 6-7 (4), 7-6 (2), 6-3 win at Wimbledon in 2023. That’s interesting because that was a version of Swiatek that wasn’t yet comfortable on quicker surfaces, and it was also a year in which Bencic was near her best as a server (76.2% hold percentage). A lot has changed since then, but the changes have mostly been positive for Swiatek when it comes to grass.
Perhaps Bencic does find a way to steal a set in this one, turning in a good 45 minutes of precise serving to win a tiebreaker — or a lengthy 6-4 or 7-5 set. But I still like Swiatek to cover 3.5 games, as she wins sets 6-1 or 6-2 regularly. She has actually had six of those sets in this tournament.
Bet: Swiatek -3.5 Games (-147)
