On Friday, January 30, we’re going to see Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev clash in the 2026 Australian Open semifinals. Alcaraz is looking to become the youngest player to achieve the career Grand Slam, so he’s highly motivated in Melbourne. Meanwhile, Zverev is in search of his maiden Grand Slam title, so he’s arguably more eager to get the job done here. Well, find out how we think this one will play out with our Alcaraz vs. Zverev betting preview and analysis.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts his tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev
Alcaraz is looking to make history in Melbourne this weekend. This is the one major the Spaniard hasn’t won, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets it. Will this be the year, making him the youngest player in history to lock down the career Grand Slam? It certainly might be. Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set Down Under, beating Adam Walton, Yannick Hanfmann, Corentin Moutet, Tommy Paul, and Alex de Minaur rather easily. That last one was insanely impressive, as de Minaur was playing awesome tennis heading into the quarterfinals.
Alcaraz will now take on a red-hot Zverev, who is coming off some impressive wins of his own. The German looked a little shaky in his first two matches, dropping sets against Gabriel Diallo and Alexandre Muller. However, since the third round, Zverev has passed the eye test with flying colors. He dropped a total of two sets in wins over Cameron Norrie, Francisco Cerundolo, and Learner Tien. Sure, his path has been a little easier than Alcaraz’s, but a weaker version of Zverev could have stumbled somewhere. Instead, he’s serving well, playing some strong tennis from the baseline, and looking more aggressive and confident than he has in some time.
This is a match that Alcaraz should win, which is why he’s such a heavy favorite. I fully expect the Spaniard to advance and have a real shot at winning major No. 7. However, with the way Zverev is playing, I do expect this one to go at least four sets.
Zverev’s serve just gives him such a high floor in matches. He’s holding at a 91.7% clip since the start of 2026, and he has been at 90.0% or higher in two of the last three years. Having a weapon of a first serve is an easy way to make sure you always have a chance in matches, and Zverev’s serve has looked really good in these faster conditions. Zverev is also being a little more aggressive in hunting plus-one opportunities, giving him a better chance of winning points even when he’s not serving up unreturnables. Of course, Alcaraz is a great a returner, but nobody can really get into Zverev’s service games when he’s going good. That said, forcing tiebreakers or late-set pressure situations is fully up to the German.
From the baseline, Zverev also has a world-class backhand, which will allow him to go blow for blow with Alcaraz’s improved, faster two-hander. Zverev has also worked on his transition game, and he’s a little more willing to go to the net.
Zverev just needs to be bold with his forehand. He wasn’t taking massive risks against Tien last round, but he was swinging a little bigger than usual while still aiming for big targets. That’s at least a step in the right direction for him. The next step will be consistent aggression in hunting winners, which will take him some time.
Overall, I think Zverev’s game can give Alcaraz’s some trouble — especially with some of the minor tweaks we have seen to start the year. And honestly, this head-to-head series has looked quite good for Zverev in these conditions. Alcaraz beat up on Zverev in Cincinnati last year, winning 6-4, 6-3 in the semifinals. But that was a match in which Zverev wasn’t feeling 100%. And Zverev had won three matches in a row on faster hard courts against Alcaraz before that, including one four-set victory here in 2024.
Bet: Over 3.5 Sets (-141)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
