On Sunday, November 16, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will battle for one final title, as they’re set to meet in the last match at the 2025 Nitto ATP Finals. Sinner will have a home-court advantage with this one being played at Inalpi Arena in Turin, Italy. However, Alcaraz does have a “road win” over Sinner already this season, beating the Italian in straight sets in the finals of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia in Rome. This feels like a fitting ending to the 2025 tennis season, as these two split the four Grand Slams and battled for the No. 1 in the ATP rankings all year. Well, keep reading for some thoughts on how this final showdown will play out, as I’ll dish out my Alcaraz vs. Sinner best bet below.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts his tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner
Depending on where you look, Sinner’s as high as a -175 favorite in this match. However, you can get -150 on the Italian at BetRivers, and that’s a reasonable price for the 24-year-old here. Alcaraz has won seven of the last eight ATP-level matches between these two, and the most recent meeting was somewhat lopsided. In the US Open final, the Spaniard came away with a 6-2, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 victory, with Sinner looking lost out there for most of the match. Afterwards, Sinner even noted that he’ll need to make some serious tactical changes in order to even up the head-to-head once again.
With Alcaraz having dominated this series recently, I’d imagine there will be a lot of support for the 22-year-old in the market. However, the head-to-head history you’ll find online doesn’t include Sinner’s 6-2, 6-4 win over Alcaraz in the Six Kings Slam final. That match took place in an exhibition event, but there was $6 million on the line and it sure looked like both players were trying. Well, that was the most recent meeting between the two, as it was played in the middle of October. And that’s somewhat significant with Sinner having changed up his serve, improving dramatically since the US Open. The Italian has also been adding in a little more variety, whether that’s mixing in the occasional drop shot or coming to the net with more regularity.
If Sinner’s serve doesn’t abandon him in this match, he really should be able to find a way to win. The Italian has been the best hard-court player on tour for years, and he’s even more dangerous when playing indoors. That’s actually why it was so startling to see Alcaraz get the best of Sinner at the US Open. We hadn’t seen much over the years that suggests Alcaraz’s hard-court game is on par with Sinner’s, but the Spaniard’s improved serving and dialed-in forehand overwhelmed Sinner in Flushing Meadows — and so did his overall edge in athleticism. Sinner didn’t help himself by serving poorly and failing to put points away. Since then, we’ve seen a much better version of the Italian. And this week, some of Sinner’s TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations Performance Ratings suggest he’s playing some of his best tennis of the year.
Let’s just hope that playing in Italy doesn’t actually hurt Sinner. While you’d think having the crowd will give him some extra adrenaline, it could actually make him a little nervous. Well, Sinner can’t afford to get off to a slow start in this match, meaning he’ll need to handle his nerve early on.
Overall, this still feels like a match in which backing Sinner feels like the right call. It’s always tempting to take Alcaraz at plus-money odds, as it’s not often those opportunities present themselves. However, indoors, with very few elements mucking up the tennis, Sinner’s clean ball-striking from both wings, plus elite serving and returning, should make beating him a major challenge. If not, Alcaraz will head into the Australian Open with all the momentum in the world, and he’ll feel good about his chances of achieving the career Grand Slam — and he’d be doing so before Sinner, despite being a little younger.
Bet: Sinner ML (-150 – 2 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
