On Sunday, February 1, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic will meet in a blockbuster final at the 2026 Australian Open. History will be on the line in this one, as Alcaraz is vying to be the youngest player in tennis history to achieve the career Grand Slam. Meanwhile, Djokovic is searching for major No. 25. Well, find out how we think this one will go with our Alcaraz vs. Djokovic betting preview and analysis.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts his tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic
The performances we saw from Alcaraz and Djokovic in the semifinals were incredible.
Alcaraz waited out cramps that made it nearly impossible for him to win the third and fourth sets in his match against Alexander Zverev, making his 2-0 lead vanish in an instant. The Spaniard was also a shell of himself in the fifth set, and Zverev ended up having a chance to serve for the match. Well, Alcaraz dug deep from there, breaking with Zverev trying to close it out for a 6-4 final set. Alcaraz won the final four games of the match, putting the finishing touches on a gutsy win that took five hours and 26 minutes.
Djokovic’s victory over Jannik Sinner, who was looking to win three straight Australian Open titles, was almost straightforward by comparison, but it was still an outrageous match. The 24-time Grand Slam champion was available for as high as +900 odds before the match, but he managed to pull out a 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 win to snap a five-match losing streak against Sinner. The Italian probably wasn’t in the greatest shape physically, but Djokovic wasn’t either. All things considered, to borrow a phrase from wrestling, this was a “clean win” for the 38-year-old.
We’re now set to get a 10th dance between Djokovic and Alcaraz. The most recent meeting between these two ended with Alcaraz winning 6-4, 7-6 (4), 6-2 in a relatively easy victory at the 2025 US Open. However, Djokovic did beat Alcaraz 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 when these two met in Melbourne last year, so you don’t have to go back too far if you’re looking for inspiration with the Serbian. Djokovic is also 10-0 in Australian Open finals, meaning he’s pretty damn close to having a Rafael Nadal/Roland Garros relationship with this event. On top of that, Alcaraz has never earned back-to-back wins over Djokovic, who also holds a pretty strong 4-2 record against the Spaniard in their last six matches.
In many ways, I’m terrified of fading Djokovic. I feel like I was one of the few people that still felt he had a chance of competing with Sinner and Alcaraz when he’s on his game, and we just got proof of that in the semifinals. In fact, my first thought when getting ready to dive into this matchup was that I’d end up on the Over on 3.5 sets, the Over on total games, or the set spread with Djokovic. I really don’t want to be in a situation in which my money is tied to him failing, as he has proven that he can achieve absolutely anything. So, would it really surprise me if he shrugs off the fatigue of playing a physical four-hour match against Sinner and zeroes in on Grand Slam No. 25, which is something he has been dying to win? Absolutely not. But I do feel the responsible way to play this one is buying low on Alcaraz.
Both of these guys put their bodies through hell last round, and Alcaraz really went through it against Zverev. The 22-year-old vomited in the third set, and his cramping was then so bad that he essentially went two sets without actually running for balls. Alcaraz then found a way to steal the fifth, but he never quite looked the same. Playing that kind of match will make for a tough recovery heading into this one. However, Alcaraz has recovered from physical matches before, and he does have the benefit of being extremely young. That gives him an advantage over Djokovic when looking at the quick turnaround, even with the 38-year-old having spent less time on the court due to the withdrawal of Jakub Mensik and retirement of Lorenzo Musetti.
Recovery used to be second nature to Djokovic, but I do question what he’ll look like here. Not only was his match against Sinner a little over four hours, but it also ended super late. There’s a chance Djokovic didn’t get to bed until roughly 6:00 am local time.
I think the best way to handicap this match is by treating these players like they’re on somewhat level playing field when it comes to fitness, and that’s why I feel backing Alcaraz is the right move. Can you really tell me that Sinner should have been a -1160 favorite over Djokovic but Alcaraz should only be -320? Come on. I’m a believer that Sinner is a better player than Alcaraz, but that gap makes very little sense.
It’s also hard not to feel like Alcaraz has a ton of advantages in this match, and the Sinner result doesn’t erase that. Let’s not forget that Musetti was absolutely dog walking Djokovic just a few matches ago. Sure, you occasionally get the version of Djokovic that beat Sinner in the semis, but you also get that older-looking version we saw in the quarters.
As far as the actual on-court stuff goes, Djokovic’s serve used to be a major advantage for him in this matchup, but Alcaraz has turned his into a serious weapon. He should get through his service games easier than he used to against his older rival. Alcaraz also continues to get better from the back of the court, and he continues to get smarter too. Watching him find ways to cat-and-mouse his way to competitive sets against Zverev was something to behold, and I think he’s more prepared than he used to be for a meeting with Djokovic.
I also don’t think Djokovic will find as many easy points as a server when targeting the Alcaraz forehand. The Spaniard appeared to have cleaned up that issue when the two met in Flushing Meadows last year, and he has also made all of his strokes a little quicker and a little more fluid.
The only thing I’m really nervous about here is the pressure. Alcaraz doesn’t like when he’s fully expected to beat Djokovic, and the Serb tends to raise his level when he badly wants something. Both of those things were evident when the two clashed in the gold medal match at the Paris Olympics. Well, Djokovic might not make another Grand Slam final, so he’s closer than ever to No. 25 and he’s going to put it all on the line to get it. But I just wouldn’t be surprised if that isn’t enough. I like Alcaraz to win in four sets, at most.
Bet: Alcaraz -1.5 Sets (-159)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
