Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula will clash in the 2026 Australian Open semifinals on Thursday, January 29. At VSiN, we’re doing in-depth breakdowns of all of the Grand Slam semifinal matches. With that in mind, keep reading for our predictions and analysis for Rybakina vs. Pegula at the 2026 Australian Open.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts his tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Elena Rybakina vs. Jessica Pegula
Pegula is still looking to win the first Grand Slam title of her career, while Rybakina is looking to win her first since Wimbledon in 2022 — which is a bit of a “Mickey Mouse ring” because that tournament didn’t feature Russian players. With that in mind, this is an enticing matchup, as these are two awesome players with something to prove.
Pegula is probably the hungrier of the two. The 31-year-old isn’t getting any younger, and deep Slam runs are becoming routine for her. She just needs to break through. Unfortunately, simply wanting to win doesn’t mean you’re going to win. And I do find this to be a tough matchup for the American.
These two have split wins in six meetings with one another, but Rybakina has won two of the last three encounters. Those two wins also happened to come on quicker hard courts, while Pegula’s win came on the borderline unplayable surface at the WTA Finals in Mexico two years ago. That surface favored a grittier baseline style, which definitely played into Pegula’s hands. However, quick, sleeker surfaces favor the bigger server and cleaner ball-striker. Well, the courts in Melbourne are extremely fast, and Rybakina is the player with the skill set to take advantage.
Rybakina is 39-12 on hard courts over the last 52 weeks, which is good for a win percentage of 76.5%. Meanwhile, Pegula’s record of 36-15 for 70.6% is nothing to sneeze at, but it’s not quite as good. And the main difference between these two is Rybakina’s hold percentage of 82.2%, which is just much higher than Pegula’s 73.6%. Rybakina should have a much easier time getting through her service games, which is why she’s a big favorite here. And a timely break or a two should give her a good shot at covering the 3.5-game spread. As far as the baseline game goes, Rybakina’s has been dynamite for a few months now. That’s why she ran through the field at the WTA Finals a few months ago.
It also looks like there’s some real sharp money on Rybakina. Our VSiN betting splits show that DraftKings opened with Rybakina at -175, but she’s been bet up by some respected players.
The only reason I’m not playing this match is that I already have a future on Rybakina to win the tournament. I don’t feel like adding to my position.
LEAN: Rybakina -3.5 Games (-105)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
