On Friday, June 7th, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will clash in the French Open semifinals. These two haven’t faced one another in a Grand Slam since 2022, so this is the definition of a popcorn matchup. These are two of the very best players in the world — and the new faces of men’s tennis — playing on a massive stage. That said, we’ll be in for a treat when these two finally get out on Court Philippe-Chatrier. Alcaraz is the betting favorite to book a spot in the final, but Sinner will have something to say about that. So, keep reading to see how Alcaraz vs. Sinner might play out in Paris.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner Odds
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of 12:00 pm EST on Thursday, June 6th)
Moneyline: Alcaraz -170, Sinner +140
Spread: Alcaraz -2.5 Games (-115), Sinner +2.5 Games (-105)
Total: Over 38.5 (-120), Under 38.5 (+100)
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner Prediction
It’s incredibly exciting that we’re going to see these two battle at a major again. And the fact that it’ll be at the French Open is interesting. When Alcaraz started rising up the ranks, many thought that clay would be his best surface. In fact, a passing of the torch from Rafael Nadal to Alcaraz was expected at Roland Garros. But Alcaraz has already won two majors and neither one of them have been here. He’s also at his very best at Indian Wells, which is a hard-court tournament. So, while Alcaraz has dominated on clay at the 1000 level and theoretically has the perfect game for it, he doesn’t quite stand head and shoulders above the rest when it comes to this surface.
As for Sinner, clay isn’t supposed to be his best surface. The Italian won his maiden Grand Slam on the fast hard courts at the Australian Open, and that surface is where he has done most of his damage thus far. But Sinner has had more success than he is given credit for on the dirt, and I don’t think we can look too much into his lack of clay-court titles.
Sinner started to become this version of himself last summer, officially breaking into the sport’s top tier with a 1000-level title in Toronto. But Sinner has maintained his level since then, and he didn’t tail off on clay this year. He was a bad call away from reaching the final in Monte Carlo, where a missed double-fault call on Stefanos Tsitsipas’ serve prevented Sinner from taking a double-break lead in the final set. The Italian then spiraled from there. Then, Sinner was arguably on his way to winning in Madrid the next week, but he had to pull out of the tournament before the quarterfinals because of a hip injury. So, while Sinner didn’t win any big clay-court events this year, he did make his presence felt. And TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations actually gave Sinner the highest Performance Rating (kind of like a quarterback rating) of any player in the world on clay heading into this tournament.
The reason all of that is relevant is because it just doesn’t feel safe to say blindly say that Alcaraz is at his best on clay, while Sinner is nowhere near his best. I don’t think there’s that big of a gap between these two on the surface, and I still think that there’s a lot Sinner can do to get to Alcaraz in this matchup.
When diving into this matchup, it’s hard not to start with the serve. Sinner had the highest hold percentage on the ATP Tour heading into this tournament, so he’s as good as it gets when it comes to racking up easy service holds. Meanwhile, Alcaraz’s serve can be extremely shaky. The Spaniard didn’t have much trouble holding against Felix Auger-Aliassime or Tsitsipas, but those guys are nothing like Sinner. Not only was Sinner first in hold percentage heading into the French Open, but he was also top five in break percentage. He’s really good about using his length to get serves back in play, and he has the ability to recover rather quickly to restart rallies. With that in mind, it’s just hard to see this match being a convincing win in favor of Alcaraz. And I think that there’s a possibility Sinner runs away with a set at some point, which is a big part of the reason that my suggested play here is on Sinner to cover an alternate 4.5-game spread.
On top of the big difference in the serving, Sinner is also just absurdly powerful. And his ability to pound the ball deep in the court has given Alcaraz a lot of trouble in the past. The Spaniard can occasionally lose his way when he is being rushed, and nobody rushes him like Sinner. That’s why I believe Sinner had won two matches in a row before they played at Indian Wells. And I’m not putting too much stock in that result in the desert. Sinner had his chances to win that match, and he actually hurt himself diving for a ball in the third set. From there, Alcaraz cruised to the win. So, I have a feeling the Italian finished that match with some real discomfort.
Overall, it’s just hard not to look at this as an opportunity to back the best player in the world as an underdog. That doesn’t come around very often. I suggest doing it with the game spread I already mentioned, as it’s a little juicy but provides a good amount of wiggle room. But I also wouldn’t blame anybody for taking Sinner on the moneyline. The underdog is 7-2 in the nine previous meetings between these players. But I should note that I’m putting this as a “lean” because I’m not personally playing it. I put 1.5 units on Sinner to win this tournament at +460 odds, so I’m not looking to add to my position.
Lean: Sinner +4.5 Games (-167)
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