2025 Roland Garros best bets for Friday, May 30th
The second major of the 2025 tennis season is here. The top players in the world are in Paris, France for the 2025 French Open over the next two weeks, and the action in Roland Garros should be awesome to monitor. I’ll be posting daily best bets throughout the tournament, so VSiN is the place to be if you like betting on tennis. If you aren’t already a subscriber, I’d suggest looking into becoming a VSiN Pro soon. I constantly provide analysis on all of the biggest events, and this is the best time of the year for this sport.
I’d also strongly suggest checking the Pro Picks page throughout the day. That’s where Gill Alexander will be posting his French Open best bets. Gill does a tremendous job handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game, which is a staple of our live VSiN programming. Also, while I try to write up as many of my plays as possible, I do occasionally add things to that page throughout the day. That’s also where I post plays for smaller ATP and WTA events, and my Challenger-level plays live exclusively on that page.
With all of that out of the way, let’s get into some French Open picks for Day 6 on Friday, May 30th.
Karen Khachanov vs. Tommy Paul
I put a Khachanov moneyline play on the picks page on Wednesday, as I had a feeling the line would move a little. If you still want to tail me with Khachanov, you’ll now have to play it at closer to -135. But honestly, I’d suggest taking the Russian up to -150.
Paul is 2-0 in two career meetings with Khachanov, but the American is injured right now. It was visible in his heroic two-set comeback against Marton Fucsovics last round. Paul ended up winning that one 4-6, 2-6, 6-3, 7-5, 6-4, but his movement wasn’t completely there and he was wincing with pain rather often. Paul then noted after the match that he has a lower abdomen injury. Well, he might have been able to overcome that to beat Fucsovics, but doing so against Khachanov will be a completely different challenge. Khachanov is better than Fucsovics at pretty much everything on a tennis court.
These are also the most favorable conditions that Khachanov has ever had against Paul. In addition to facing the American while he’s wounded, playing in Paris should mean that Khachanov won’t have to get too low to hit his groundstrokes. That’s one thing the Russian has had trouble with in his career.
With Paul’s movement compromised, Khachanov won’t be dealing with a huge athletic disadvantage. And that really should make all the difference in the world for him. If this match comes down to just serving, returning and ball striking, with less grinding and battling, Khachanov should win.
Bet: Khachanov ML (-123 – 1.5 units)
Sebastian Korda vs. Frances Tiafoe
It seems like there’s some sharp action on Korda in this match, and that does give me some pause. I like to align with sharp bettors as much as humanly possible, but I can’t bring myself to do it here. Having said that, I’m only going to risk a unit on this play, and I originally planned on going bigger. So, I’m not taking what I’m seeing on the VSiN betting splits page lightly.
It’s just hard not to like Tiafoe’s Grand Slam pedigree in this match. While Tiafoe has never been further than the third round at Roland Garros, he’s a two-time US Open semifinalist. Tiafoe has always played his best tennis on the biggest stages, and it feels like the opposite is true of Korda.
I also just like the way Tiafoe matches up with Korda on clay. I know that Korda has won three in a row in this head-to-head series, but Tiafoe won the only previous meeting on clay. Of course, that was back in 2022, when Tiafoe won 4-6, 7-6 (2), 6-4 in Estoril. That was a very long time ago. But you know what? Since then, not much has changed about the way Korda plays. The 24-year-old is a talented ball striker, he moves well for his size and he can be great when he’s firing on all cylinders. But he also hits very flat strokes, which isn’t all that effective on clay. And as far as this season goes, more often than not, Korda hasn’t showed up with clean, overpowering baseline play.
This just feels like a match in which Tiafoe’s ability to hit with heavy topspin, mix in some drop shots and approach the net will come in handy. His variety can be a real tool in slower conditions, and he has to be viewing this as an opportunity to change his clay-court narrative.
Bet: Tiafoe ML (+102)
2025 Record: 712-696-1 (+18.16 units)
