On Wednesday, June 4th, Novak Djokovic will look to book a spot in the 2025 French Open semifinals. The 24-time Grand Slam champion will take on Alexander Zverev, who is a wonderful clay-court player but still hasn’t broken through for his first major title. That said, there will be all kinds of drama when these two take the court, and I’m diving into the matchup below.
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Novak Djokovic vs. Alexander Zverev Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Tuesday, June 3rd at 9:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Djokovic -110, Zverev -110
Spread: Djokovic -1.5 Games (+105), Zverev +1.5 Games (-140)
Total: Over 40.5 Games (-110), Under 40.5 Games (-125)
How To Watch Novak Djokovic vs. Alexander Zverev
Where: Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France
When: Wednesday, June 4th
Channel: TNT / HBO Max
Novak Djokovic vs. Alexander Zverev Predictions
We were robbed of a classic when Djokovic and Zverev couldn’t finish their Australian Open semifinal earlier this year. Djokovic retired after a tight first-set tiebreaker, hampered by a hamstring injury from his quarterfinal battle with Carlos Alcaraz. Now, the stage is set for a rematch — this time in Paris, with a spot in the Roland Garros semifinals at stake. And if I didn’t already have Djokovic to win Quarter 2 at +250 odds, this is a spot in which I’d normally be all over the Serbian. That’s why you’ll see this noted as a “strong lean” below — instead of a “bet” — but it’s one I’m counting towards my record.
Neither player was exactly flying on clay leading into this event. Zverev did grab a title in Munich, bouncing back after a shaky loss to Matteo Berrettini in Monte-Carlo. But across the three clay Masters events — Monte-Carlo, Madrid and Rome — his best was a quarterfinal in Rome. For a guy with his clay-court pedigree, that’s not great. He won in Italy the year prior.
Still, Zverev’s found some rhythm in Paris. He cruised past Learner Tien, Jesper De Jong and Flavio Cobolli, and was up a set and a break against Tallon Griekspoor before the Dutchman retired last round. That gave Zverev a quick day and fresh legs for Djokovic.
But here’s the thing: Zverev hasn’t notched a real signature win in a while. His best result since coming to Europe is a straight-set win over Arthur Fils. Facing Djokovic is a whole different ballgame — especially in Paris, where the Serbian hasn’t lost a match since 2022.
Djokovic’s clay season once looked shaky, too. He lost in straight sets to Alejandro Tabilo in Monte-Carlo — marking the second time the Chilean has beaten him — and then again to Matteo Arnaldi in Madrid. Skipping Rome didn’t help, either — there were real doubts about his form and health. But then he went to Geneva and won his 100th career title. Along the way, he beat Marton Fucsovics and Arnaldi (avenging his Madrid loss), then grinded out three-set wins over Cameron Norrie and Hubert Hurkacz.
All Djokovic needed was some matches, and he got them in Geneva. I never bought the “washed” narrative. He had strong runs in Australia and Miami, and the stats from Geneva — especially the ones I often reference from TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations — showed his ball striking was top-notch. And his movement has looked sharp ever since.
In Paris, Djokovic has breezed past Mackenzie McDonald, Corentin Moutet, Filip Misolic and Norrie. Sure, the draw hasn’t been brutal, but he’s been ruthless — dominating every opponent. He looks like a top-five player again, and that’s trouble for Zverev. So is the on-court matchup, stylistically.
Djokovic’s return game is legendary. So, while Zverev’s serve is massive, Djokovic can handle it. The German’s power with the serve is impressive, and lesser returners can be flustered by it. But his placement isn’t always precise, and that could cost him against Djokovic.
Zverev’s lack of aggression is another issue. He likes to extend rallies and wait for errors, but that’s not a winning strategy against Djokovic, who doesn’t miss much when he’s on. There’s no such thing as out-grinding Djokovic. The phrase “lockdown mode” was made to describe the 38-year-old’s ability to play long points without missing, or making bad decisions.
Djokovic is also a master at exploiting weaknesses, and Zverev’s forehand is vulnerable. That shot has looked good in Paris so far, but in big matches, he tends to play it safe, leaving balls short. Djokovic will punish that. Before the Australian Open final, I noted that Zverev’s only path to beating Jannik Sinner was going big from the forehand wing, and that was the time for him to stop playing scared. But Zverev’s forehands were clearing the net by a comfortable margin, showing that he was afraid of swinging through the ball. Instead, he was playing not to miss. I don’t trust him to change that up against Djokovic.
Eventually, more of the younger guys will catch up to Djokovic, but I don’t think it’s happening just yet. So, take the odds on the GOAT while you still can.
Strong Lean: Djokovic ML (-110 – 1.5 units)
NOTE: If you did take Djokovic to win Quarter 2 at +250, or followed me on a play on the Serb to win the tournament at 10-1, I’d suggest taking Zverev and cutting down on your overall exposure. I wouldn’t be adding to the position.
