The 2026 BNP Paribas Open is in full swing at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, and Monday, March 9 brings another loaded slate of ATP and WTA action from Tennis Paradise. We’ve broken down the day’s best tennis betting picks for Indian Wells, digging into matchup tactics, court conditions, and current form to find the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, game spread, set spread, or total, our 2026 BNP Paribas Open best bets are built to help you profit all the way through the men’s final on Sunday, March 15. I’m dropping some of my favorite plays below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. I generally have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his best bets.
Cameron Norrie vs. Alex de Minaur
Norrie beat de Minaur in Australia the last time these two met, earning a 6-4, 2-6, 7-6 (2) victory in the 2024 United Cup. That’s a “road win” for Norrie over a player that finds another gear in his home country, suggesting the Brit might just be a tough matchup for the Australian. The head-to-head history between these two also happens to back that up, as they have split wins and played a couple of close matches. In fact, the only meeting between these two that wouldn’t have resulted in Norrie covering this match’s 4.5-game spread was a clay-court battle that went three sets in Barcelona in 2022. De Minaur ran away with the third set in that one, winning 6-1 to advance to the semifinals.
These two will now be battling in conditions that have been favorable for Norrie in the past. The Brit actually won this tournament in 2021, and he has a 17-6 record in this venue if you include his two qualifying wins in 2018. Norrie’s big, spinny forehand is a bit more of a weapon on these courts, as the ball jumps off the court and creates tough contact points for opponents. Norrie is also a good returner in any conditions, but playing on somewhat slower courts only make him more dangerous.
Norrie also happened to turn in an impressive performance in the Round of 64, beating Mackenzie McDonald 6-2, 6-3 and turning in a TennisViz Performance Rating of 7.96. That was right on par with de Minaur’s 7.99 Performance Rating in a win over Sebastian Korda.
I would agree that there’s a good chance de Minaur wins this match, but I do think that his lack of a big serve opens the door for this to be tight on the scoreboard.
Bet: Norrie +4.5 Games (-115)
Valentin Vacherot vs. Casper Ruud
This is a very intriguing match. Vacherot has done a good job of building on last year’s momentum, as he’s 9-6 since the start of 2026. He’s holding his own as a new top-30 player, remaining highly competitive with a big serve and a huge backhand. However, this does feel like it could be a brutal matchup for him. Ruud is one of the few players on tour that can absorb Vacherot’s pace in backhand-to-backhand exchanges. The Norwegian also has one of the biggest forehands on tour, and he should be able to control points and exploit Vacherot’s lack of mobility here.
The conditions should also help Ruud get into Vacherot’s service games, which is why I ultimately feel comfortable laying some games in this one. I don’t see this match being a multi-tiebreaker showdown. I think Ruud will earn some breaks of serve.
I also think Ruud is highly motivated to post some decent results here. He’s down to No. 13 in the rankings, so it’s time for him to start playing some better tennis. Of course, he’ll likely face Carlos Alcaraz in the Round of 16, so he might not be destined to go deep here. But this is a winnable match, and two wins here would be an improvement on last year’s Round of 64 exit.
Bet: Ruud -2.5 Games (+100)
Jack Draper vs. Francisco Cerundolo
Draper is the defending champion here, so he has a lot of points to defend. However, he’s very early in his return from injury, and he hasn’t looked like himself thus far. Draper dropped a set to Roberto Bautista Agut in the Round of 64, and that came directly after a loss to Arthur Rinderknech in Dubai. Draper is currently using a new service motion, so he hasn’t been as sharp with the ball on his racquet. He also doesn’t look nearly as good as he did last year from the back of the court. All of that makes it hard to get on board with the southpaw being a massive favorite over Cerundolo.
Cerundolo also looked somewhat disappointing last round, dropping a set and nearly losing the decider against Benjamin Bonzi. However, Cerundolo is an elite mover, he has one of the biggest forehands in the sport, and he has won a lot of big matches in his career. So, at +163 odds, I think it’s worth taking a chance on him to beat an out-of-form Draper.
Bet: Cerundolo ML (+163)
