The 2026 BNP Paribas Open is in full swing at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, and Sunday, March 8 brings another loaded slate of ATP and WTA action from Tennis Paradise. We’ve broken down the day’s best tennis betting picks for Indian Wells, digging into matchup tactics, court conditions, and current form to find the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, game spread, set spread, or total, our 2026 BNP Paribas Open best bets are built to help you profit all the way through the men’s final on Sunday, March 15. I’m dropping some of my favorite plays below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. I generally have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his best bets.
Learner Tien vs. Ben Shelton
Shelton and Tien have only met once, with the latter emerging with a victory in a grass-court match in Mallorca. There probably isn’t much from that one that can be applied here, but I will say that Shelton failing to beat Tien in server-friendly conditions doesn’t bode well for him as they move to a grittier event. Tien is going to have an easier time picking up Shelton’s serve in the desert, and this match will come down to baseline steadiness and tennis IQ. Well, Tien has Shelton beat by a wide margin in those areas.
Shelton’s power will undoubtedly pop at times, as he’s just a special athlete and the ball flies off his racquet. However, I prefer Tien’s ability to win longer rallies, hit with pinpoint accuracy, and hang tight mentally in big moments. These conditions can be absolutely brutal. I know the courts are playing a lot faster when looking at Court Pace Index (CPI), but it’s still windy and the bounces aren’t normal. That mucks up the matches, and Tien is more likely to manage his game and emotions.
Bet: Tien ML (+115)
Camila Osorio vs. Naomi Osaka
Osaka was able to come away with a 7-5, 6-2 victory over Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva in the opening round, but that was her first match since the Australian Open. We just haven’t seen enough of Osaka lately, making it hard to really gauge where her level is. Well, Osaka might have a booming first serve and some serious baseline power, but Osorio demands that her opponents play very clean tennis from the baseline. Are we sure Osaka will do that?
I just think Osorio is a good enough returner to get into a bunch of Osaka’s service games, and I also think the Colombian is extremely dangerous as a baseliner. She just played an awesome match from the back of the court against Iva Jovic, and she has now won 12 of her last 14 matches — which includes a title run in Manila and a push to the Round of 16 in Doha.
Osorio is just playing some fantastic tennis right now, so this seems like a dice worth rolling at +150.
Bet: Osorio ML (+150)
Ajla Tomljanovic vs. Jasmine Paolini
Paolini hasn’t been anywhere near her best this season. In fact, her Elo Rating for the 2026 season is 1705.4, which is wildly lower than her peak Elo Rating of 2058.1 — and her overall hard-court Elo Rating of 1908.8. The Italian is also just 6-5 on the season, and she really doesn’t have any big victories on her season-long resume. With that in mind, it really feels like Paolini is one of the most gettable seeds on the WTA Tour at the moment, and Tomljanovic has the ability to take advantage of that.
Tomljanovic is a player that has always been more talented than her ranking, and she’s in a nice groove right now. Tomljanovic won two matches in Austin, with one of them being an impressive victory over Jovic. Tomljanovic also happened to win her first two matches here, defeating Elena Gabriela Ruse and Xinyu Wang in straight sets.
I just like that Tomljanovic has a massive serve, while Paolini is having some trouble holding. That could tilt things in the Australian’s favor in these conditions.
Bet: Tomljanovic ML (+158)
