While we’re already one Grand Slam into the 2026 tennis season, it really feels like the year is just starting. Over the next two weeks, the ATP and WTA Tours stop at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California. This venue is known as “Tennis Paradise” and many consider this 1000-level event to be the fifth slam. That said, all of the top players are in the fields this week, making this a tournament you won’t want to miss. With that in mind, keep reading for my BNP Paribas Open tennis best bets for Thursday, March 5. I’ll include some of my favorite plays below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. Gill Alexander posts his best bets there. I’ll also occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving.
Rafael Jodar vs. Alejandro Tabilo
Tabilo is coming off a wildly successful Golden Swing, going 8-3 in the 11 matches he played. The Chilean is now 10-7 on the season, looking a little more like the player he was in 2024 than 2025. However, it is very difficult to transition to hard courts after multiple weeks on clay — even with Indian Wells playing more like clay than most hard-court events.
Jodar has also played some solid hard-court tennis recently, beating Ethan Quinn before falling in a very tight two-set loss against Taylor Fritz in Delray Beach. Then, Jodar beat up on Cameron Norrie in his opening-round match in Acapulco before eventually being bounced by Terence Atmane. All in all, the form has looked good for the big, talented Spaniard. Oh, and by the way, those last two matches were played against southpaws, meaning Jodar should be ready to play another lefty.
It’s just hard not to value the fact that Jodar has played nothing but hard-court tennis since the start of 2026, winning at a high clip in Challengers before flipping over to the ATP Tour and making his mark there. There hasn’t been any change in preparation, while the same can’t be said for Tabilo. I also like that Jodar is the bigger server between these two, and I think his big, heavy forehand is going to jump off this court and be hard for Tabilo to handle.
Bet: Jodar ML (-131 – 1.5 units)
Ashlyn Krueger vs. Magda Linette
Krueger is coming off a strong run in Austin, going all the way to the semifinals after a very slow start to the season. In fact, right before the American got to Austin, she lost her first match in a Midland 125K, which is a lower-level event. Well, as long as Krueger continues to make strides towards finding her 2025 form, this is a tournament in which she should be a tough out. Krueger isn’t the most accurate server in the world, but she has a ton of pop on her first serve. She should be able to hold a little easier than Linette, as the slower court speeds will take something off the Pole’s already average serve.
Linette has struggled in this venue in the past, going 6-10 at the BNP Paribas Open in her career. She had also lost her opening match here in three straight years before beating Peyton Stearns in the Round of 128 last year. She responded to that win by getting boat-raced by Jessica Pegula, so these surroundings won’t bring back good memories.
Bet: Krueger ML (-110 – 1.5 units)
Taylor Townsend vs. Marie Bouzkova
I really like Townsend to beat Bouzkova on Thursday. I’m actually a huge fan of Bouzkova’s game, as she’s an absolute fighter and really forces opponents to play well in order to beat her. However, the last time I saw Bouzkova was in Merida last week, when she got injured in the final set of her three-set loss against Magdalena Frech. That’s a little hard to shake coming into this one, as it was only a week ago. Is she going to be 100% healthy for this match?
Townsend has also been playing her way into form after a light schedule to start the year, going all the way to the finals in Austin and then going through qualifying here. The lefty has also picked up some impressive wins over the last few weeks, so it’s not like she’s just beating up on bad competition.
This venue should also bring out the best in Townsend, who needs a little more time on the ball and should have it in these grittier conditions. Also, Townsend’s ability to hit with heavy spin, hit effective touch shots, and come to the net will all be weapons here.
I’d just suggest taking this somewhere that pays out for a first-set retirement. It wouldn’t be too surprising if Bouzkova can’t finish the match.
Bet: Townsend ML (-109 – 2 units)
