It feels like tennis season never actually slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible throughout the 2025 season. Over the next week seven days, the ATP and WTA Tours are posted up at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California. This venue is known as “Tennis Paradise” and many consider this 1000-level event to be the fifth slam. That said, all of the top players are in the fields, making this a tournament you won’t want to miss. With that in mind, keep reading for my Indian Wells best bets for Tuesday, March 11th. I’ll include some of my favorite plays below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. Gill Alexander posts his best bets there. I’ll also occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving.
Marcos Giron vs. Arthur Fils
Giron was extremely fortunate to get by Alexei Popyrin in his last match. The American saved 14 of the 15 break points he faced, which is pretty much unheard of for a player that lacks a big serve. Giron does deserve credit for playing big points well, but Popyrin also left a lot of food on the table. I’m not sure Giron will be as lucky here.
Like Popyrin, Fils has a booming first serve, allowing him to rack up holds rather easily when he’s hitting his spots. However, Fils also happens to be one of the best athletes on the ATP Tour, so he’ll have a better chance in longer rallies than Popyrin did. Also, over the last 52 weeks, Fils’ 19.9% break percentage is a good amount higher than Popyrin’s 17.5%. So, he should even be more prepared to go to work as a returner here.
I also have some questions about how Giron will hold up physically in this match. The American looked somewhat gassed towards the end of his three-set battle with Popyrin, which is another reason it was surprising he found a way through. Well, he’s going to need a full tank in order to get by Fils, who feels primed for a big run in the desert.
Bet: Fils ML (-154)
Tommy Paul vs. Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev used to have a significant head-to-head edge against Paul, winning the first three matchups between the two at the tour level. That includes a win in Indian Wells last year. However, Paul finally got the better of the Russian last year, beating up on Medvedev in a 6-1, 6-4 victory in Rome that took only an hour and 14 minutes. Of course, the conditions in Rome are extremely slow, which is normal for a clay-court event. But I’m not sure Indian Wells is playing that much quicker this year, despite the fact that the tournament directors tried to speed things up by moving to Laykold.
With Medvedev declining as a server, it isn’t surprising that an elite returner like Paul can play with him. And this matchup should continue to tilt in Paul’s favor as the American makes strides with his serve. Well, Paul is holding at a career-high 86.5% rate right now, which is actually right in the range Medvedev used to live in when he was one of the best players in the world. Also, the battle from the baseline isn’t terrible for Paul either, as he has a good enough backhand to trade blows with Medvedev on that wing. The slower courts in the desert also happen to give Paul more time to load up on his weaker forehand side.
I just like the on-court stylistic matchup for Paul here, and recent form also happens to favor the American. If that’s not enough, there’s also a huge home-court advantage for Paul at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.
Bet: Paul ML (+110 – 1.5 units)
Marta Kostyuk vs. Qinwen Zheng
Zheng has won two matches in a row coming into this one, which is something she hasn’t done since November. She’s clearly starting to feel a little better about her game right now, but something isn’t quite right. Zheng had a lot of trouble with Lulu Sun last match, winning 6-4, 7-5 in a match that felt like it could have gone either way. Well, if Sun felt like a difficult opponent for Zheng, how is she going to deal with Kostyuk?
Kostyuk definitely leaves a bit to be desired as a server, but she’s tremendous as a baseliner and she’s one of the best athletes on the WTA Tour. So, she really should do a good job of winning her longer baseline exchanges with Zheng. Kostyuk is also one of the better returners in the women’s game, so she should be able to capitalize on the courts slowing down Zheng’s big first serves.
Kostyuk also happened to play some great tennis here last year, going all the way to the semifinals. So, while Zheng is definitely a better player when she’s at her best, there’s quite a bit that suggests she’s not there right now. That makes this match a little closer to a 50-50 than the odds suggest, making this worthy of a play.
Bet: Kostyuk ML (+140)
