It feels like tennis season never actually slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible throughout the 2025 season. Over the next week seven days, the ATP and WTA Tours are posted up at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California. This venue is known as “Tennis Paradise” and many consider this 1000-level event to be the fifth slam. That said, all of the top players are in the fields, making this a tournament you won’t want to miss. With that in mind, keep reading for my Indian Wells best bets for Wednesday, March 12th. I’ll include some of my favorite plays below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. Gill Alexander posts his best bets there. I’ll also occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving.
Jack Draper vs. Taylor Fritz
Fritz has won two matches in Indian Wells already, so the 2022 BNP Paribas Open champion is getting a chance to play his way into form. However, the American had a lot of trouble beating a struggling Alejandro Tabilo last match, so the performance was far from inspiring. Fritz has also just looked a little off all year, which could be because of some minor injuries he has been dealing with. But either way, the version of Fritz we have seen in 2025 is nothing like the guy that made the 2024 US Open final. That’s alarming heading into a meeting with Draper, who beat Fritz when he was at his very best at the Paris Masters last year.
Draper is also playing some tremendous tennis to start 2025, and he just made a run to the finals in Doha a couple of weeks ago. The lefty is one of the most underrated players on tour right now, and I’m not sure he’s even worse than Fritz when the two are at their best. Draper actually has a higher peak Elo rating than Fritz does, and his 2025 Elo rating is way higher than Fritz’s.
The only thing to really worry about here is that Fritz does have a much better serve, but the conditions in Indian Wells should prevent that from mattering too much. What does matter is that Draper is the better baseliner, and that’s especially true with the version of Fritz we have seen over the last few months.
Bet: Draper ML (-141 – 1.5 units)
Liudmila Samsonova vs. Jasmine Paolini
Samsonova is coming off a gutsy 2-6, 6-3, 6-2 win over Daria Kasatkina, and she has now won three of her last four matches. The Russian has always enjoyed playing on Laykold courts, so she definitely enjoys the recent surface change made at Indian Wells Tennis Garden — even if the conditions are playing slow. And realistically, I’m not sure she has to play all that well to beat Paolini right now.
Paolini was one of the best stories of the 2024 season, making the leap from good to great as a WTA player. But she hasn’t looked right since the start of the 2025 season. She’s not moving quite as well as she did last year, she’s serving a little worse and she’s making more mistakes in rallies. Honestly, Paolini was fortunate just to get by Jaqueline Cristian in her last match.
Considering all of that, I like Samsonova’s chances of finding a way to win this match. You never really know what you’re getting from the Russian, but she should win this match if she’s just having a decent day as a ball striker.
Bet: Samsonova ML (-105)
Brandon Nakashima vs. Ben Shelton
Shelton should be able to find a way to beat Nakashima in Indian Wells. After all, Shelton is 3-0 with three straight-set wins over this opponent. However, these three have played seven sets against one another at the ATP level, and Shelton won seven games in all seven of those sets. These are just two high-level servers and below-average returners, which is why they play so many long, competitive sets. Well, I don’t think that’s going to change in Indian Wells. I know these courts are capable of neutralizing good serves, but that’s still not enough to help these guys consistently break. With that in mind, even at juiced odds, I’m taking Shelton to win Over 12.5 games. If he wins seven games in one of the two sets in a straight-set win, this will cash. But it can also win if this ends up being a three-set match that goes either way.
Bet: Shelton Over 12.5 Games (-166)
