It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible throughout the 2025 season. Over the next two weeks, the ATP and WTA Tours stop at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California. This venue is known as “Tennis Paradise” and many consider this 1000-level event to be the fifth slam. That said, all of the top players are in the fields this week, making this a tournament you won’t want to miss. With that in mind, keep reading for my Indian Wells best bets for Wednesday, March 5th. I’ll include some of my favorite plays below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. Gill Alexander posts his best bets there. I’ll also occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving. Also, check out my Indian Wells tournament futures!
2025 Record: 300-273-1 (+3.51 units)
Kei Nishikori vs. Jaume Munar
While everybody wants to try and speak a Nishikori bounce-back season into existence, it just doesn’t seem like it’s in the cards. Nishikori started the year off well, making a run to the finals in Hong Kong. However, Nishikori came up short against Alexandre Muller in that match, and the 35-year-old has now lost five of his last seven matches. The two wins also happened to come against Thiago Montiero and Billy Harris. We just haven’t seen many truly impressive wins out of Nishikori since the start of January, and he now has a very difficult opening-round matchup against Munar.
If the conditions in Indian Wells are even close to as gritty as they used to be, Munar should be a dangerous opponent for whoever faces him in the desert. The Spaniard has won 67 tour-level clay-court matches in his career, so he likes when the balls are bouncing high and he’s able to use his topspin-heavy shots to control points. Munar has also added some muscle, which has resulted in his hold percentage going from 73.7% in 40 tour-level matches in 2024 to 84.2% in eight tour-level matches in 2025. That should help him to get through service games a little easier, which will be crucial in this meeting with Nishikori.
Realistically, it’s just hard to turn down plus-money odds on Munar here. He has played better tennis than Nishikori to start the season, and a slower hard court suits his game better than it does his opponent.
Bet: Munar ML (+110)
Thiago Seyboth Wild vs. Alexandre Muller
After making a run to the final in Rio de Janeiro, Muller ran out of steam. He lost that final 6-2, 6-3 against Sebastian Baez, looking completely gassed the second that match started. Muller then traveled to Acapulco and lost 6-4, 6-2 against Frances Tiafoe, and he really didn’t look like he had recovered. Fortunately, that match was over a week ago at this point. So, Muller should really be back to 100%, which is why I like his chances against Wild in Indian Wells.
Wild is just 2-6 since the start of 2025 and one of those wins was a clay-court victory over a struggling Facundo Diaz Acosta. Wild has also suffered losses to Ugo Blanchet and Gustavo Heide this season, so he really hasn’t looked the part of a former world No. 58. And honestly, if Wild didn’t win a single match in his home tournament in Rio de Janeiro, it’s hard to believe in him turning things around soon.
Wild definitely has some firepower from the baseline, but I’m not sure he’s a good enough server to consistently hold against a solid returner. And I don’t have the same concerns about Muller, who handled his business with the ball on his racquet all throughout the Golden Swing. I also like Muller’s ability to absorb pace, get himself into points and then come to the net to finish them. He has a clear way he wants to play. Wild lacks that right now.
I was honestly surprised to see that Muller wasn’t a little closer to -200 in this match, as it definitely feels like one he’d win twice out of every three matches. The only reason I’m not going bigger on this is that I haven’t seen Muller at full strength in a few weeks.
Bet: Muller ML (-143)
Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Tallon Griekspoor
Griekspoor has had some chances to turn in big results in recent weeks, as he played in a few tournaments with conditions that really should have favored him. However, Indian Wells is going to be a tough one for him. Griekspoor’s game is built on getting through service games easily, but it’s going to be hard for him to do that when the ball is bouncing into the returner’s strike zone. And Kecmanovic is a player that can really take advantage of slower, higher bounces. Kecmanovic takes the ball early and hits the ball deep in the court. So, unless Griekspoor is hitting small targets, Kecmanovic is going to quickly reset points and then look to out-do the Dutchman from the baseline. And that’s a battle Kecmanovic really should win.
Kecmanovic has also played some good tennis at Indian Wells in the past, as he’s a two-time quarterfinalist here. So, he’s capable of playing well at Indian Wells Tennis Garden when he’s on his game, and it’s hard to say he isn’t right now. Kecmanovic suffered a tough loss against Daniel Altmaier in the first round in Acapulco, but that was right after he won a title in Delray Beach.
All in all, this just feels like the right time to fade Griekspoor and back Kecmanovic, so I’m grabbing the Serbian at even-money odds.
Bet: Kecmanovic ML (+100)
Tennis Links
Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast – Gill had Drew Dinsick on for some pre-draw Indian Wells thoughts, and then Gill and I dove into some futures once the draw was released. Make sure you check it out!
