On Sunday, March 16th, 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva will be looking to win her second 1000-level event in a row as she takes on world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka in the BNP Paribas Open finals in Indian Wells. This tournament, played in “Tennis Paradise,” is viewed as the unofficial fifth slam, so the stakes are going to be high when these two take the court. Having said that, keep reading for a little breakdown on how this one might play out.
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Mirra Andreeva vs. Aryna Sabalenka Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Accurate as of Saturday, March 15th at 5:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sabalenka -175, Andreeva +135
Spread: Sabalenka -2.5 Games (-120), Andreeva +2.5 Games (-110)
Total: Over 21.5 Games (-120), Under 21.5 Games (-110)
How To Watch Mirra Andreeva vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Where: Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California
When: Sunday, March 16th
Channel: Tennis Channel / Tennis Channel App
Mirra Andreeva vs. Aryna Sabalenka Predictions
If you checked out my pre-tournament Indian Wells futures, you should be in great shape heading into this match. I suggested a play on Sabalenka to win the tournament at +450, which was available at FanDuel Sportsbook. I simply loved Sabalenka’s draw, which is why I also went big on the world No. 1 to win Quarter 1. Well, if you did listen to everything I said before the tournament, I’d suggest putting a little something down on Andreeva. I hedged a little on Andreeva at +169, as I don’t want to get caught winning nothing with the hottest player in tennis on the other side of the net. However, I do love Sabalenka’s chances of winning this tournament. So, if you’re just looking for something on this specific match, grabbing Sabalenka at around -170 is the way to go.
I really liked Andreeva’s chances of beating Iga Swiatek last match, as I think that stylistic battle favors the 17-year-old now. Andreeva is one of the best baseline defenders in tennis, and she’s an elite counter-puncher. That’s the way Swiatek usually beats her opponents. But Andreeva just seems better at it right now, which has a lot to do with her being mentally tougher. But this matchup favors Sabalenka in a big way.
Andreeva has made a lot of strides in the strength department recently. That’s why she’s holding at a career-high rate of 75.1%, and it’s also why her forehand is bigger than ever right now. However, she still has some work to do in that department before she’s able to really hit with Sabalenka. And that’s why Sabalenka has absolutely wiped the court with Andreeva in four of their five WTA matchups. Two of those wins also happened to come this year, with Sabalenka beating Andreeva 6-3, 6-2 in Brisbane and then 6-1, 6-2 at the Australian Open a couple of weeks later.
Andreeva’s world-class defense helps her track down more of Sabalenka’s shots than pretty much anybody — outside of maybe Coco Gauff. But tracking down shots really only matters if you’re able to get them back with some depth, and Andreeva hasn’t been able to do that against Sabalenka. The world No. 1 generally pushes her around the court with her massive power from both wings, and the ball comes back very short when Andreeva does get her racquet on the ball. That then allows Sabalenka to easily put away winners.
Of course, the conditions in Indian Wells do help Andreeva a little bit, as this tournament plays a little more like clay than a traditional hard court. But I’m just not sure I see that mattering enough for the teenager to win, even with the crowd pulling for her. I also think Sabalenka will be a little more prepared for this final mentally. Obviously, it’s impressive Andreeva beat Swiatek in such a big semi-final, and she also beat Clara Tauson in the 1000-level final in Dubai a few weeks ago. But how is she going to feel about seeing Sabalenka on the other side of the net in a massive final? Andreeva has noted in the past that she looks up to Sabalenka. That’s going to make for an interesting dynamic.
Prediction: Sabalenka Wins
