On Friday, September 5th, Jannik Sinner will look to defeat Felix Auger Aliassime and book his spot in the US Open final. Sinner is the defending champion in New York, and he has looked like the most dominant player in the field over the last two weeks. That’s why he’s a heavy betting favorite to defeat Auger Aliassime. Honestly, it’s hard to find a way to play this match, as it’s nearly impossible to find a reasonable number to back the Italian. However, we feel we found something actionable here, so keep reading for our betting preview on Sinner vs. Auger Aliassime.
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Jannik Sinner vs. Felix Auger Aliassime Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Thursday, September 4th at 12:30 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sinner -2500, Auger Aliassime +1300
Spread: Sinner -7.5 Games (-115), Auger Aliassime +7.5 (-115)
Total: Over 37.5 Games (-115), Under 37.5 Games (-120)
How To Watch Jannik Sinner vs. Felix Auger Aliassime
Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York
When: Friday, September 5th
Channel: ESPN / ABC
Jannik Sinner vs. Felix Auger Aliassime Predictions
I tried to find a normal way to play this match, but I couldn’t get myself there. Normally, I’d jump at a price in the ballpark of +150 for a good player to win a set, and that’s out there with Auger Aliassime. However, while the Canadian has been stellar in New York over the last two weeks, we just saw these two play a disgustingly lopsided match. In Cincinnati, where Sinner was a little under the weather, the Italian earned a 6-0, 6-2 win over Auger Aliassime. That match took only an hour and 15 minutes to complete, and the one-way traffic makes it hard to believe in the Canadian’s ability to push this to four or more sets. Auger Aliassime wasn’t even that good as a server in his match against against Alex de Minaur last round. He was broken in all four sets of that 4-6, 7-6 (7), 7-5, 7-6 (4) win, and that doesn’t bode well for his chances against Sinner.
I’m also not willing to play Sinner to win in straight sets at -200. That’s an absurd price to pay, especially with Auger Aliassime being a player that can run hot as a server and force some uncomfortable late-set situations for his opponents. I also don’t feel comfortable laying 7.5 or 8.5 games. With that in mind, I had to get creative in order to find something for this match.
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I ultimately landed on Sinner +2.5 aces at -120 odds, which is available at bet365. Auger Aliassime’s 13.2% Ace Rate is higher than Sinner’s 11.4% when looking at hard-court matches over the last 52 weeks. However, it isn’t a significant edge. And Sinner has played way more high-profile matches, meaning he has seen some of the best players — and returners — a little more often.
A good argument can also be made that Sinner is the best returner on the planet. Over the last 52 weeks, he has a break percentage of 28.7% on hard courts, and he uses his length and athleticism to get his racquet on a ton of serves. Well, Auger Aliassime’s break percentage in that same span is just 19.6%, and I just don’t think the Canadian is going to fight to get as many balls back in play.
It’s also hard not to point out that Auger Aliassime had zero aces when he faced Sinner in Cincinnati a few weeks ago. The Italian was getting everything back, and I can see this being a similar match — although maybe a little less straightforward.
The only thing I’m really worried about is that Sinner is going to get deeper in more of Auger Aliassime’s service games, potentially giving the Canadian more opportunities to pile up aces. But that’s why I like the spread (+2.5) instead of getting greedy with Sinner to have more aces (+225). The latter would be a loss if the two finished with the same amount, which also factored into my thinking.
Lean: Sinner +2.5 Aces (-120)
