Jannik Sinner is on a quest for a three-peat at the Australian Open, but 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic is standing in his way. The two will clash in the 2026 Australian Open semifinals on January 30, and Sinner is a massive favorite to advance to the final. Is there anything Djokovic can do to pull off a stunner? Find out how we think this one will play out with our Sinner vs. Djokovic betting preview and analysis.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts his tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic
Djokovic shouldn’t be in the tournament right now. The 24-time Grand Slam champion was down two sets when Lorenzo Musetti got injured in their quarterfinal encounter. Musetti wasn’t able to finish the third set, retiring with a massive lead. After the match, Djokovic noted how lucky he was. His level wasn’t there in that match, while Musetti was firing on all cylinders. However, Djokovic now finds himself one match from the Australian Open final, and what happened last match is no longer important. All that matters is this match with Sinner.
Unfortunately, it’s hard to imagine this one being close. Sinner has won five straight matches against Djokovic, and the last two were straight-set victories in Grand Slams. Sinner beat him 6-4, 7-5, 7-6 (3) in the Roland Garros semifinals last year, and he beat him again in a 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 dusting at Wimbledon.
Over the last 52 weeks, Tennis Insights’ numbers also happen to show a pretty massive gap between these two. When looking at overall Performance Rating, Sinner’s 9.0 is the top mark on tour, while Djokovic’s is down at 8.61. Of course, “down” is relative. Djokovic has the second-best Performance Rating on the ATP Tour in non-majors over the last 52 weeks. He’s still a fantastic player. However, Sinner is the top of the line. The Italian also has Djokovic cleared when looking at Return Quality (8.2 vs. 7.4), Forehand Quality (8.8 vs. 8.6), and Backhand Quality (8.5 vs. 8.0). On top of that, not only is Sinner in attacking positions more often (In Attack: Sinner 26% vs. Djokovic 25%), but the Italian converts at a higher clip (74% vs. 72%). Well, if Sinner is the better offensive player, surely Djokovic is the better defender. Right? Nope. Sinner’s 37% Steal Score clears Djokovic’s 34%. And overall, Sinner wins a larger percentage of points from the baseline (58% vs. 56%).
There’s really no clear advantage for Djokovic when looking at this matchup right now. Sure, the 38-year-old has an edge when talking about tennis IQ and tactical acumen, but the talent gap and difference in physicality render that somewhat useless. All in all, Sinner is probably looking at a lopsided victory, whether that comes in three or four sets. The prices also make it hard to back the Italian, making it difficult to pinpoint a traditional side or total to land on here.
What is worth playing? How about the Over on 0.5 tiebreakers? I know I gave this out for Sinner’s match against Ben Shelton, but that was juiced. This one is available at plus-money odds. That said, you don’t have to risk too much to end up with a nice payout.
For all of the advantages Sinner has over Djokovic in the last 52 weeks, the serve is the one place the Serb holds up well. Djokovic’s Serve Quality is 8.4 in non-Slams in the last 12 months, while Sinner’s is 8.3. The serve is also the one thing Djokovic can really control in this match. If Sinner is hitting cleanly from both wings, there’s very little Djokovic can do to tilt baseline exchanges in his favor. That’s just the new reality at his age. However, Djokovic can get through his service games by hitting his spots, and pinpoint accuracy is one of the few things he has left.
These two have also met one another four times since the start of the 2024 season. Three of the four matchups featured a tiebreaker. There has also been at least one tiebreaker in four of their last six matches.
Bet: Over 0.5 Tiebreakers (+114)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
