On Sunday, March 30th, Jakub Mensik will take on his idol, Novak Djokovic, in the Miami Open final. Mensik has played some awesome tennis in Miami Gardens, Florida over the last two weeks, but he’s going to have to take things up another notch to defeat the 24-time Grand Slam champion. Djokovic doesn’t normally care much about tournaments played during this portion of the season, but he realizes the opportunity in front of him and has a shot at winning career title No. 100. Having said that, keep reading for a little breakdown on how this one might play out.
I also post more tennis predictions on the VSiN picks page. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks. I’ll also post plays for smaller tournaments on that page.
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Jakub Mensik vs. Novak Djokovic Odds
Odds accurate as of Friday, March 28th at 11:30 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Novak Djokovic -500, Jakub Mensik +380
Spread: Djokovic -4.5 Games (+110), Mensik +4.5 Games (-125)
Total: Over 21.5 Games (-120), Under 21.5 Games (-110)
How To Watch Jakub Mensik vs. Novak Djokovic
Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
When: Sunday, March 30th
Channel: Tennis Channel / Tennis Channel App
Jakub Mensik vs. Novak Djokovic Predictions
I posted a future for Djokovic to win the Miami Open at +187 odds to the picks page before matches started on Wednesday. With that in mind, the only thing I personally did with this final is risk a half-unit on Mensik at +425 odds. I want to win more if Djokovic, a massive moneyline favorite, wins. That’s the most likely outcome in this match, by far. However, I didn’t take away much of my potential winnings to remove all risk, which feels wise in a match featuring a player with as high of a daily floor as Mensik. When the Czech is serving well, he has the potential to force tiebreakers in his sleep. That’s a scary player to go against.
For anybody that didn’t jump on the Djokovic play, my strongest lean here is laying 3.5 games with Djokovic. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mensik forces a tiebreaker, or even wins one. However, Djokovic is the best returner in the history of the sport. If anybody can make Mensik sweat with the ball on his racquet, it’s Djokovic. Mensik will also be under some insane pressure in this match, as this is his first 1000-level title and he’s facing his childhood idol. Well, if the odd circumstances surrounding this match get to Mensik at all, Djokovic can easily pounce and break him — and I wouldn’t be surprised if he breaks him twice in a single set.
Mensik is also an incredibly talented player, but he does have a pretty shaky forehand. Well, throughout his career, Djokovic has made a habit of targeting weaknesses and making opponents beat him with them. So, he’s going to go cross-court with his forehand as often as possible, and he’s going to go down the line — or re-direct shots deuce side — with his backhand.
Djokovic also happens to be playing some insane tennis right now. I have criticized some of the shaky sets Djokovic has played in South Beach in these write-ups, as the second sets he played against Rinky Hijikata, Carmilo Ugo Carabelli and Sebastian Korda were all a little weird. But Djokovic played some of his best tennis of the season in wins over Lorenzo Musetti and Grigor Dimitrov, and he still hasn’t dropped a set all tournament. Djokovic also noted after the Dimitrov win that he’s feeling as good as he has felt since winning gold at the Paris Olympics last summer. Well, when Djokovic is feeling like himself, it shouldn’t take much to back him. The only players that I’d ever really doubt Djokovic against right now are Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. And honestly, that second one might be a reach considering the way the Spaniard is playing.
Mensik is just going to be up against a lot in this final, as the nerves of playing at this stage of a tournament can do damage to a young player. And tossing in the fact that he puts his opponent on a pedestal only adds to the pressure. Djokovic is also a brutal stylistic matchup for Mensik.
Lean: Djokovic -3.5 Games (-156)
