On Saturday, March 29th, Jessica Pegula will face Aryna Sabalenka in the finals of the Miami Open. Not only is this a rematch of the 2024 US Open final, but it’s also a rematch of the final in Cincinnati a month earlier. These two should be very familiar with one another, and we’re sure to see an intriguing match in Miami Gardens, Florida. Having said that, keep reading for a little breakdown on how this one might play out.
I also post more tennis predictions on the VSiN picks page. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks. I’ll also post plays for smaller tournaments on that page.
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Jessica Pegula vs. Aryna Sabalenka Odds
Odds accurate as of Friday, March 28th at 5:30 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sabalenka -300, Pegula +240
Spread: Sabalenka -4.5 Games (-110), Pegula +4.5 Games (-110)
Total: Over 21.5 Games (-110), Under 21.5 Games (-120)
How To Watch Jessica Pegula vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
When: Saturday, March 29th
Channel: Tennis Channel / Tennis Channel App
Jessica Pegula vs. Aryna Sabalenka Predictions
I gave out Sabalenka to win this tournament at +350 odds, so I won’t personally be playing anything in this final. That’s why you’ll see “lean” and not “bet” below. If anything, I might come in with a moneyline play on Pegula to hedge a little. However, if you’re playing this match on its own, the best way to go would be to lay 3.5 games with Sabalenka.
Pegula is a really good baseliner, capable of playing a number of different styles. If she needs to counter-punch, she’ll counter-punch. If she needs to play aggressively, she’ll play aggressively. The problem with this specific matchup is that Sabalenka just has more power from both wings. So, if Sabalenka isn’t having an off day and racking up unforced errors, it’s going to be very difficult for Pegula to find a way into the match. And those dreadful performances from Sabalenka are more and more rare these days. She has done so much to improve her consistency, add to her game and become a more trustworthy player.
Sabalenka is also a much better server than Pegula. In fact, over the last 52 weeks, only Iga Swiatek has a higher hold percentage than Sabalenka’s 78.2%. Pegula’s is down at 73.9%. That’s a big difference when factoring in Sabalenka’s ability to smoke returns. And with the way Pegula is serving lately, Sabalenka’s return game could bust this match open. Pegula was broken five times by Alexandra Eala in the semifinals, and Sabalenka is a much better returner than her. Pegula also lost some confidence with her serve in that match, and we saw the American roll some serves into the box. Doing that against Sabalenka is essentially forfeiting the point.
Sabalenka has also covered 3.5 games in each of her last two meetings with Pegula, winning 6-3, 7-5 in Cincinnati and then 7-5, 7-5 at the US Open. Now, Sabalenka comes into this tournament playing some flawless tennis, in conditions that suit her game extremely well. Sure, Pegula also deserves a ton of credit for getting to this point, but she has also had a little more luck with her draw.
Honestly, I wouldn’t be stunned if Pegula finds a way to sneak a set late, winning one 6-4 or 7-5 at some point. A high-pressure moment could get to Sabalenka, especially with the crowd against her. But with a game spread this small, Sabalenka should be able to make that up with a lopsided set at another stage in the match.
Lean: Sabalenka -3.5 Games (-154)
