Some of the top tennis players in the world are in Miami Gardens, Florida for the 2025 Miami Open. This is the second part of the Sunshine Double. We just saw Mirra Andreeva and Jack Draper win the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, and these two 1000-level events have always been looped together. This week, Andreeva and Draper will look to add their names to the short list of players that have gone back-to-back to win both events. However, the men’s and women’s fields are both loaded, so it’s not going to be easy. I genuinely can’t wait to see how it all unfolds, and I’ll be providing you with daily tennis best bets throughout. Keep reading for my picks for Friday, March 21st.
Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Casper Ruud
Ruud’s loss to Marcos Giron in Indian Wells was disappointing, and it’s definitely frustrating that he can occasionally look so beatable as a top-10 player. However, it’s a little crazy how many people like Kecmanovic in this match. I understand Kecmanovic beat Ruud in Rome last year, but the Norwegian had won two in a row against the Serbian before that. And while Kecmanovic is a player that can sometimes be difficult to beat, we’re talking about a player that came into this season with back-to-back losing seasons. Meanwhile, only four players won more matches than Ruud in 2024. That said, even if it might seem like Ruud lacks consistency, he’s definitely a bit more reliable than his opponent here.
Ruud also has better service and return numbers than Kecmanovic over the last 52 weeks, whether that’s using traditional stats like hold percentage and break percentage, or some more advanced numbers like the serve and return quality scores from TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations. Their advanced numbers also happen to have Ruud with a better backhand than Kecmanovic, even though that shot is viewed as a weakness for the Norwegian.
Of course, there’s no such thing as a sure thing. We saw that in being on the wrong side of Ruud’s loss to Giron. But more often than not, when you back a better player at a good price, you’re going to end up happy. Well, this is a top-10 player in the world against somebody that profiles more like a top-40 player in the world. And the implied probability Ruud will win this match is low based on these odds. If Kecmanovic was available at +165 or so, I’d understand taking a shot on him against this recent version of Ruud. But that’s not the case.
Bet: Ruud ML (-137 – 1.5 units)
Caroline Garcia vs. Iga Swiatek
Swiatek’s likely going to get herself going and start winning some tournaments soon. And honestly, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if she continues to play a little below her level over the next couple of weeks. I would love to get some favorable prices on her at the start of clay-court season. But, while she hasn’t won as many tournaments as we’re all used to, her overall numbers remain strong. So her demise has been a bit over-exaggerated. However, it’s definitely a real thing that Swiatek is nowhere near her best on faster hard courts. With that in mind, I like the idea of taking Garcia to win six games in this one. The Frenchwoman has fallen off significantly since her days as a consistent top-10 player, and we just saw Swiatek beat Garcia 6-2, 6-0 in Indian Wells. But the courts at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden played outrageously slow, looking more like a clay-court event than usual. Miami is much, much quicker, which should give a big server like Garcia a shot at making the match a little more respectable.
I wouldn’t be shocked if we see Swiatek win 6-3, 6-3, and I can even see Garcia winning five or six games in a single set. Garcia had actually won a set in back-to-back matches against Swiatek before their most recent meeting. And she has won at least six games in four of their six matches.
Bet: Garcia Over 5.5 Games Won (-124)
Eliot Spizzirri vs. Sebastian Korda
Korda didn’t play poorly in his straight-set loss to Gael Monfils at Indian Wells, as he lost in two tiebreakers against a player that was in good form heading into the event. So, it’s unfair to shine a light specifically on Korda losing his only match in the desert. But it is definitely fair to say that Korda hasn’t shown us much lately. The American lost to Aleksandar Vukic in the second round of the Australian Open, and he enters this match on a three-match losing streak. That can obviously change at any moment. Korda is an unbelievable talent, and he also happens to have a game that fits nicely on these quick Miami courts. But my issue here is that Korda lacks a certain competitiveness and mental toughness that you’d like to see in a physical match. And I think he’s going to get one from Spizzirri, who is a fighter that also happens to have a pretty complete all-around game.
Spizzirri has been stacking wins at the Challenger level, building confidence and showing promise as one of the next Americans to crack the Top 100. And since the start of January, Spizzirri has earned some wins over guys we’ve seen at the tour level. And last year, Spizzirri had some other big wins, including a qualifying victory over Joao Fonseca at the US Open. The University of Texas alum just isn’t far away from his true ATP breakout, and I can see him putting himself on the map with a good performance here.
Spizzirri is a pretty strong defender, so he’ll ask a lot of questions out of an inconsistent Korda. He’s also pretty decisive on the court. If he sees opportunities, he’s going to take them. And he’s pretty solid when it comes to both serving and returning.
If Korda doesn’t show up with his very best level, don’t be shocked if this match is tight in a third set. It’ll be interesting to see who wins over the crowd, too. If Korda somehow doesn’t have the fan support on American soil, that could rattle him.
Bet: Spizzirri +1.5 Sets (-108 – 1.5 units) & Spizzirri ML (+240 – 0.5 units)
