Some of the top tennis players in the world are in Miami Gardens, Florida for the 2025 Miami Open. This is the second part of the Sunshine Double. Last week, the tour was stationed at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, and these two 1000-level events have always been looped together. This week, players are hoping to do some damage on hard courts before switching over to clay. I genuinely can’t wait to see how it all unfolds. This has already been a crazy tournament and I’ll continue providing you with daily tennis best bets throughout. Keep reading for my picks for Monday, March 24th.
Naomi Osaka vs. Jasmine Paolini
Ashlyn Krueger vs. Qinwen Zheng
I’m playing two-leg parlays for both the men and the women on Monday. On the women’s side, I’m going with Paolini to cover an alternate 5.5-game spread, and I’m pairing that with an alternate total of Over 18.5 games in Krueger’s match against Zheng.
With the first match, I just haven’t been all that impressed with Osaka. Obviously, just seeing her this deep in a big tournament is nice, and there’s undoubtedly a chance she’ll win this match. After all, she is a favorite to do so. However, Osaka probably should have lost her match against Hailey Baptiste last round. Baptiste was up breaks in the first and third sets, and those were the two sets she lost. All in all, Osaka was a little loose with her baseline game, and her serve wasn’t as consistent as it needed to be. Baptiste simply wasn’t able to take advantage. But Paolini should be able to do enough to keep this match close — and potentially win it. I have been somewhat critical of the Italian’s play early in the season, as she has struggled to reach the level she was at when she was a runner-up at two majors last year. Perhaps some of that has to do with an ankle injury that appears to be giving her some trouble. But Paolini is a good counter-puncher along the baseline, she extends a lot of rallies and she has a little punch as a server and baseliner. She’s going to ask a lot of questions of Osaka in this one, and the American is going to have to play her very best tennis in order to win by a massive margin.
As far as the other match goes, it’s just a battle between two huge servers. I thought about taking the regular Over, but I wanted a little extra wiggle room with Paolini. So, I’m giving myself a little here, too. I’d simply be stunned if this match isn’t at least 6-4, 6-3, if it even ends in straight sets. However, I also think it’s pretty likely we’ll see a tiebreaker, and one of those would guarantee the Over on this total.
PARLAY: Paolini +5.5 Games & Krueger-Zheng Over 18.5 Games (-154 – 1.5 units)
Frances Tiafoe vs. Arthur Fils
Joao Fonseca vs. Alex de Minaur
For the men’s parlay, I’m taking Tiafoe to win a single set against Fils, plus Fonseca to do the same in his blockbuster night match against de Minaur.
With Tiafoe, it’s hard to overlook how well he played in his match against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina last round. The Spaniard has been playing some good tennis this season, but Tiafoe was able to win that one in straight sets. Obviously, focus is always an issue with Tiafoe. He isn’t always engaged when he gets out on the court. But we know Tiafoe brings his best stuff on American hard courts. Sure, he didn’t look all that great in Indian Wells, but those are also the slowest hard courts imaginable. In Miami, Tiafoe’s huge serve is a big weapon. So, when he locks in as a returner and gives a little more effort, he can be tough to beat. Well, Fils might be able to get him. The Frenchman is a fantastic player. But I’d be surprised if Fils does it in straight sets. This is a match in which breaks should be pretty hard to come by, with both players having big serves and being less reliable when it comes to the return game. Well, if we see close, lengthy sets to start the match, Tiafoe should be able to come away with one of them. This is also a weird time for Fils, who just split up with his coach and then played a mediocre second set against Gabriel Diallo.
The second match is going to be electric. I’m still a little nervous about Fonseca’s body holding up after seeing him crawl to the finish line against Learner Tien the other night, which is why I faded him against Ugo Humbert last round. But Fonseca looked completely healthy against the Frenchman. And if health isn’t a concern, he should be able to get the board and give de Minaur a match. De Minaur is one of the best defensive players in tennis, and getting a million balls back in play is how you get to a big-swinging baseliner like Fonseca. But I have noted on X that the Brazilian has been taking a little off his baseline strokes, instead opting to move his opponents from side to side. From there, the heaviness of his normal rally-balls can draw errors out of opponents, or give him some opportunities to come up to the net and finish. And Fonseca has looked much more comfortable when doing that. So, I’m not sure we’re going to see the erratic version of Fonseca that we saw against Jack Draper in Indian Wells. De Minaur’s also a player that can struggle to hold serve. So, I see there being at least one set in which the Australian gives Fonseca chances to break. And with an insane crowd urging him on, I think we’ll see Fonseca cash in.
PARLAY: Tiafoe +1.5 Sets & Fonseca +1.5 Sets (+104 – 1.5 units)
Elina Svitolina vs. Iga Swiatek
I have been looking for ways to fade Swiatek in these fast Miami conditions. I was successful in taking Caroline Garcia to go Over 5.5 games won in the second round, but I just missed out in taking Elise Mertens to win a set in the third round. Mertens did force a first-set tiebreaker, but Swiatek won it somewhat comfortably. Well, I’m not ready to change my tune and expect the Pole to roll. Swiatek can still be rushed in these conditions, which is something she absolutely hates. We have seen a few matches now in which she has unraveled a bit from the forehand side, so I’d be surprised if Svitolina can’t suck her into a long, competitive match. The Ukrainian has been superb in South Beach so far, beating an in-form Belinda Bencic and then taking down a very good player in Karolina Muchova. As long as Svitolina doesn’t completely crumble under the pressure, there’s no reason she can’t keep this close. I honestly think she’ll win a set, but this play protects us from losing the same way we did with Mertens.
Bet: Over 19.5 Games (-125)
