Some of the top tennis players in the world are in Miami Gardens, Florida for the 2025 Miami Open. This is the second part of the Sunshine Double. We just saw Mirra Andreeva and Jack Draper win the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, and these two 1000-level events have always been looped together. This week, Andreeva and Draper will look to add their names to the short list of players that have gone back-to-back to win both events. However, the men’s and women’s fields are both loaded, so it’s not going to be easy. I genuinely can’t wait to see how it all unfolds, and I’ll be providing you with daily tennis best bets throughout. Keep reading for my picks for Saturday, March 22nd.
Jasmine Paolini vs. Ons Jabeur
I thought about taking Paolini to beat Rebecca Sramkova last round. While the Italian is struggling a bit to start 2025, I do think there are certain matchups in which it’ll make sense to back her. However, I’m not sure this is one of them. Paolini has won three of her last four matches, so the arrow is pointing up for last year’s French Open and Wimbledon runner-up. But Paolini’s 63.9% hold percentage is still way down from last year’s 68.7%. Her movement also looks a little worse than it did last year, and court coverage is a huge part of her game. That makes it hard to like her to come out on top against Jabeur, who is going to utilize her drop shots to test the Italian’s legs. Jabeur’s low-bouncing slice is also devastating in these conditions, so the Tunisian can win this one rather comfortably if she’s just serving at a decent level. Jabeur’s serve was awesome in the Middle East, but it has abandoned her a bit lately. If she can get somewhere in between, she’s going to be tough to beat.
Bet: Jabeur ML (-138 – 1.5 units)
Jordan Thompson vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
I’m extremely high on Mpetshi Perricard. Anybody that can serve the way he does has a bright future, especially considering he moves a bit better than most of the big, lumbering serve bots that have come before him. However, Mpetshi Perricard’s 90.5% hold percentage is going to mean very little as long as his break percentage is below 10.0%, and it’s currently an abysmal 4.7%. So, even in conditions that suit him rather well, it’s hard not to like Thompson to beat the young Frenchman. Thompson has had some health issues this year, but he appears to be healthy now. And he’s a tough matchup for Mpetshi Perricard. The Australian is a good server, so he should be able to rack up holds against a bad returner. Also, he’s an absolute grinder. He’s going to dig in on service games and fight nonstop to try and make some progress. But even if he doesn’t, Thompson’s ability to play from the back of the court should give him a slight edge.
Bet: Thompson ML (-122)
Linda Fruhvirtova vs. Magda Linette
I was on Fruhvirtova to beat Beatriz Haddad Maia last round, and I took a lot of joy in pointing to the television and telling my wife that I predicted “Czech Anna Kendrick” would win that match. Fruhvirtova had just looked so confident in qualifiers, so I liked her chances of coming away with a win against a struggling Haddad Maia. However, it’s going to be very difficult for her to now beat Linette. The world No. 34 has just looked extremely comfortable in Miami thus far, earning wins over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Ekaterina Alexandrova. That second one is an impressive win. Alexandrova was a semi-finalist here last year, and she’s a very dangerous player in quick conditions. That said, Linette is playing some good tennis at the moment, and she’s an established WTA pro that should be able to handle her business against a youngster like Fruhvirtova. While this mini-run in Miami has been awesome to see for an up-and-coming player like Fruhvirtova, we’re talking about a player that is just 1-3 at the ITF level this season. She’s playing a little out of her mind right now, and I see that coming to an end against a sturdy opponent like this one.
Bet: Linette ML (-149 – 1.5 units)
Roman Safiullin vs. Alexei Popyrin
Popyrin just parted ways with his coach, so it’ll be interesting to see what kind of impact that has on him here. But as long as he’s mentally engaged, he should be able to beat Safiullin. The Australian has played some of his best tennis on quicker hard courts, and last year’s 1000-level title in Canada is proof of that. The big difference between Popyrin and Safiullin is that the Australian’s serve is way more reliable. Safiullin has a big baseline game. He can overwhelm opponents with his power, especially from the backhand side. However, Safiullin does lose focus in service games, giving opponents chances to break when they least expect it. You can’t do that against Popyrin, who swings big whenever he sees second serves in big moments. Also, Safiullin does occasionally lose his range from the baseline. He’s a talented player that can be quite erratic. So, while I wouldn’t exactly say Popyrin is a sturdy player, I do think he possesses the higher floor between these two. Considering he also has more talent, that makes him hard to pass on at these odds.
Bet: Popyrin ML (-118)
Maria Sakkari vs. Coco Gauff
Yes, I might be crazy for going to a Gauff fade after having legitimate plays on Sofia Kenin in a 6-0, 6-0 loss last round. However, that loss had way more to do with Kenin’s miserable play than anything else. Gauff did look a little sharper than she has in recent weeks — especially when it comes to landing first serves — but it’s easy to win points when your opponent can’t find the court. I’m interested in seeing how Gauff will look in a rematch with Sakkari, who took her to a tiebreaker in their first set in Indian Wells. That match ended up being a 7-6 (1), 6-2 win for Gauff, but I don’t think it’s crazy to expect Sakkari to find a way to win a set in quicker conditions. I know it has been a long time since we have seen high-level tennis from Sakkari, but she’s still a player that can be a pain to play against. And I genuinely believe that these conditions might help her a little in this matchup.
Sakkari can use some help with her serve, as her hold percentage is down at 61.9% this year. But making serves, even if they’re not huge, is rewarded on these speeding fast courts. Also, Gauff will have a harder time hitting her forehand on these low-bouncing courts than she did in Indian Wells. Instead of the ball slowly bouncing up into her strike zone, she’s going to be rushed and have to get down for her forehands.
Of course, it’s far more likely Gauff will win this match, and a straight-set win is definitely possible. But +449 odds suggests Sakkari only has an 18.21% chance of winning this thing. With the way Gauff is playing right now, I can’t get on board with that thinking.
Bet: Sakkari +1.5 Sets (+146) & Sakkari ML (+449 – 0.5 units)
