Some of the top tennis players in the world are in Miami Gardens, Florida for the 2025 Miami Open. This is the second part of the Sunshine Double. We just saw Mirra Andreeva and Jack Draper win the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, and these two 1000-level events have always been looped together. This week, Andreeva and Draper will look to add their names to the short list of players that have gone back-to-back to win both events. However, the men’s and women’s fields are both loaded, so it’s not going to be easy. I genuinely can’t wait to see how it all unfolds, and I’ll be providing you with daily tennis best bets throughout. Keep reading for my picks for Thursday, March 20th.
Elena Gabriela Ruse vs. Magdalena Frech
This is a really interesting match, as the rankings suggest Frech should be favored. However, Frech has lost four matches in a row coming into this one. She’s now just 3-8 since the start of the 2025 season, and a weak serve is really doing her in. Frech’s hold percentage is just 56.6% through 11 matches, down from back-to-back seasons at 65.6% or better. She’s also making fewer than 60% of her first serves. Well, if Frech doesn’t change that in a hurry, Ruse should be able to beat her pretty easily. The Romanian is in good form coming into this one, as she won two matches in qualifying — with one coming against a talented Ena Shibahara. She also picked up an impressive opening-round win over Polina Kudermetova in the first round. Ruse is a smart player that can really put pressure on opponents with her strong all-court ability and mind for the game. That makes her a tough draw for a struggling player. Ruse also beat Frech in a three-set match in Sydney in 2022. Those courts are similarly quick.
Bet: Ruse ML (-118 – 1.5 units)
Sofia Kenin vs. Coco Gauff
I’m unfortunately back in a Gauff-fading phase. This is always a risky proposition. The American is one of the best players in the world, and she’s close to unbeatable when she’s playing her best tennis. However, Gauff’s double-fault percentage is up at 9.4% this season, which is even higher than the 8.9% she hit in 2024. A lot of the issues have come up in the last couple of weeks. She’s also winning just 38.8% of the points she’s playing behind her second serve. That’s a problematic number, even though she is doing better than ever with her first serve. It just means that if she’s not having a near-flawless day with her first serve, she’s teeing opponents up with break opportunities. And that’s not something you can do against a free-swinging Kenin.
Kenin’s power from the baseline could also rush Gauff, which should get to the world No. 3. She has a lot of trouble when rushed on the forehand side, and that’s only going to be worse in the quick conditions in Miami.
I know Gauff beat Kenin in straight sets at the Australian Open, winning 6-3, 6-3 in a comfortable Round of 128 win. But Kenin has been trending upwards since then, and Gauff is trending downwards. Kenin really found her game in the Middle East a few weeks ago, so I’m expecting this matchup to look entirely different than the one in Melbourne.
Bet: Kenin +1.5 Sets (-116 – 1.5 units) & Kenin ML (+215 – 0.5 units)
Learner Tien vs. Joao Fonseca
Yibing Wu vs. Matteo Arnaldi
I really like Fonseca to beat Tien on Thursday, as I think the Brazilian is going to have a little too much firepower for the American. Fonseca’s ability to serve big, pound the ball from both wings and just push opponents around is going to make him a tough out in Miami. I know Tien is theoretically built to beat a player like Fonseca, as he forces you to hit a lot of balls and make more mistakes than usual. But Fonseca is growing as a player. I think he’s good enough to do well against Tien in longer rallies, especially after showcasing some better feel in Phoenix last week. The problem with this match is that I’m not really looking to lay any games, and Fonseca is -270 on the moneyline. So, in order to make the odds a little more reasonable, I’m parlaying Fonseca with Arnaldi. The Italian is playing a talented opponent, but it’s one that has had some trouble with injuries — as well as issues playing in super hot conditions. Arnaldi should be able to win somewhat comfortably to get me the favorable Fonseca odds I’m looking for.
PARLAY: Fonseca ML & Arnaldi ML (-141 – 1.5 units)
Jenson Brooksby vs. Roman Safiullin
I’m a big fan of Safiullin’s game. I have backed him a lot over the years. However, while I generally like a powerful baseline game in Miami, the Russian isn’t the greatest server in the world. He’s also incredibly mistake-prone. With that in mind, a counter-puncher like Brooksby could be a nightmare for him to play against. Brooksby found his game in Indian Wells last week, earning wins over Benjamin Bonzi and Felix Auger Aliassime. He also put up a real fight against eventual champion Draper. As long as he isn’t completely exhausted after that mini-run, I like him to handle his business here. He’s going to frustrate the heck out of Safiullin with his ability to track balls down and find angles. The crowd should also be pulling pretty hard for him.
Bet: Brooksby ML (+100)
Linda Fruhvirtova vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia
Fruhvirtova was once considered the “next big thing” in the women’s game, but the last few years have been up and down. Since then, we have seen several other young stars emerge on the WTA Tour. But Fruhvirtova is still a player with a world of potential, and we have seen some high-level tennis from her in South Beach already. The 19-year-old beat Rebecca Marino 6-3, 6-3 in her first qualifying match. She then followed it up with a dominant 6-1, 6-2 win over Laura Siegemund, who is as sturdy a veteran as there is. Just getting into the main draw would have been a win for Fruhvirtova after some of the below-average tennis she has played in recent seasons, but she doesn’t look ready to roll over. The Czech earned an impressive win over Claire Liu in the Round of 128, and I now believe she’s going to give Haddad Maia a run for her money.
Haddad Maia is obviously capable of playing great tennis. She’s 18th in the world for a reason. She also happens to be coming off three seasons in a row in which she won at least 37 matches. That doesn’t happen by accident. However, Haddad Maia is really struggling in 2025. The Brazilian is just 2-8 through 10 matches, looking weak as a server and less disruptive as a returner. There’s really no part of her game that looks right at the moment, which is why she has lost five matches in a row. The last one was the most concerning, as Haddad Maia lost 6-2, 6-1 against lucky loser Sonay Kartal in Indian Wells.
If Haddad Maia doesn’t snap out of this funk quickly, Fruhvirtova is going to enjoy this matchup. The Czech got hot with her serve last match, so she might be the more reliable of these two when it comes to holding on Thursday. She’s also aggressive from the baseline, so she’s going to push Haddad Maia around and test her rally tolerance.
Bet: Fruhvirtova +1.5 Sets (-159)
