Some of the top tennis players in the world are in Miami Gardens, Florida for the 2025 Miami Open. This is the second part of the Sunshine Double. We just saw Mirra Andreeva and Jack Draper win the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, and these two 1000-level events have always been looped together. This week, Andreeva and Draper will look to add their names to the short list of players that have have gone back-to-back to win both events. However, the men’s and women’s fields are both loaded, so it’s not going to be easy. But I genuinely can’t wait to see how it all unfolds, and I’ll be providing you with daily tennis best bets throughout. Keep reading for my picks for Wednesday, March 19th.
NOTE: Looks like I saw a schedule that hadn’t yet been completely updated, so the Fonseca/Arnaldi parlay and the Brooksby play will be for Thursday. I’ll post them in my Thursday story as a reminder.
Alexander Bublik vs. Sebastian Baez
Bublik just made a run to the final at the Arizona Tennis Classic, where he put up a good fight in a loss to Joao Fonseca. On the way, Bublik earned wins over Alexander Vukic, Rinky Hijikata, Corentin Moutet and Nuno Borges. It was really more like a 250-level event than a Challenger, and a straight-set win over Borges in Phoenix is noteworthy. Borges had won back-to-back titles in the desert heading into the event. Bublik is a player that can be very difficult to trust, as you never know when he’s going to be motivated. But he’s not far from falling out of the Top 100, so he needs to start taking things very seriously. And it’s pretty clear that he is. Bublik made a racquet change recently, which isn’t something you do when you’re complacent. And the run in Phoenix included some awesome performances. With that in mind, I like him to show up and give some real effort against Baez. And this is an opponent that really struggles off clay, as it becomes very easy to break his serve and out-muscle him in quicker conditions. This should be a match in which Bublik runs through his service games, meaning he’ll just need to dial in on a few return games to get this play home.
Bet: Bublik ML (-167 – 1.5 units)
Victoria Mboko vs. Camila Osorio
I’m taking a shot on Mboko to beat Osorio in the first round. Mboko is an 18-year-old Canadian phenom. She has a very big game, complete with huge serves and heavy forehands. She’s exactly the type of player that should thrive in the quick conditions in Miami. Of course, this is a giant step up in competition for a player that has mostly been playing at the lower levels of tennis (W35s, W75s, etc.). So, it’s entirely possible the moment will be too big for her. But Osorio is a pretty good matchup at this particular event. The world No. 54 really likes to grind out longer points, which won’t come by as often in Miami as they do on slower hard courts. She also has a very returnable serve. That said, if Mboko can avoid a complete meltdown, she should have a shot at winning this match.
Bet: Mboko ML (+118)
Learner Tien vs. Joao Fonseca
Yibing Wu vs. Matteo Arnaldi
I really like Fonseca to beat Tien on Wednesday, as I think the Brazilian is going to have a little too much firepower for the American. Fonseca’s ability to serve big, pound the ball from both wings and just push opponents around is going to make him a tough out in Miami. I know Tien is theoretically built to beat a player like Fonseca, as he forces you to hit a lot of balls and make more mistakes than usual. But Fonseca is growing as a player. I think he’s good enough to do well against Tien in longer rallies, especially after showcasing some better feel in Phoenix last week. The problem with this match is that I’m not really looking to lay any games, and Fonseca is -250 on the moneyline. So, in order to make the odds a little more reasonable, I’m parlaying Fonseca with Arnaldi. The Italian is playing a talented opponent, but it’s one that has had some trouble with injuries — as well as issues playing in super hot conditions. Arnaldi should be able to win somewhat comfortable and close this out.
PARLAY: Fonseca ML & Arnaldi ML (-141 – 1.5 units)
Jenson Brooksby vs. Roman Safiullin
I’m a big fan of Safiullin’s game. I have backed him a lot over the years. However, while I generally like a powerful baseline game in Miami, the Russian isn’t the greatest server in the world. He’s also incredibly mistake-prone. With that in mind, a counter-puncher like Brooksby could be a nightmare for him to play against. Brooksby found his game in Indian Wells last week, earning wins over Benjamin Bonzi and Felix Auger Aliassime. He also put up a real fight against eventual champion Draper. As long as he isn’t completely exhausted after that mini-run, I like him to handle his business here. He’s going to frustrate the heck out of Safiullin with his ability to track balls down and find angles. The crowd should also be pulling pretty hard for him.
Bet: Brooksby ML (+100)
Aleksandar Kovacevic vs. Miomir Kecmanovic
Kecmanovic seems to always bring his best level when playing on hard courts in the United States, but he lost in the first round in Indian Wells. Then, he went to play in the Cap Cana Challenger, where he lost to Damir Dzumhur in straight sets after beating Roberto Cid in his first match. Losing to Dzumhur is a pretty brutal result for a player of Kecmanovic’s level. And overall, it’s starting to seem like Kecmanovic is struggling to find his best tennis, as he has now lost three of his last four matches. Well, his opponent here is actually the Cap Cana champion. That’s right, Kovacevic won that tournament after going through Mattia Bellucci, Coleman Wong, Daniel Altmaier, Alexandre Muller and Dzumhur. He enters this tournament with a ton of confidence, which is why I love him to at least win a set. However, I also think it makes some sense to throw a little on the moneyline here. If Kovacevic plays the way he did last week, he’s going to have some success in Miami. That was another loaded Challenger field.
Bet: Kovacevic +1.5 Sets (-143 – 1.5 units) & Kovacevic ML (+177 – 0.5 units)
