Some of the top tennis players in the world are in Miami Gardens, Florida for the 2025 Miami Open. This is the second part of the Sunshine Double. Last week, the tour was stationed at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, and these two 1000-level events have always been looped together. This week, players are hoping to do some damage on hard courts before switching over to clay. I genuinely can’t wait to see how it all unfolds. This has already been a crazy tournament and I’ll continue providing you with daily tennis best bets throughout. Keep reading for my picks for Wednesday, March 26th.
Arthur Fils vs. Alexander Zverev
Zverev has to be feeling a certain type of way about the rain delays on Tuesday. Instead of facing Fils, who was cramping up in his Monday win over Frances Tiafoe, on one day’s rest, Zverev now has to face him in a late afternoon match on Wednesday. Fils has now had plenty of time to hydrate and get his body right, making this a match that could very well be competitive.
Zverev’s serve is definitely better than Fils’, so he should have a slight edge in tiebreakers. However, Fils’ serve, which continues to get better and better, is good enough for him to hold somewhat regularly and get into late-set situations. Well, in matches that should feature 7-5 and 7-6 sets, it’s hard not to like the underdog. And that’s especially true with one like Fils, who has a massive baseline game and the ability to go through some really hot stretches throughout matches.
Zverev also happens to be coming into this tournament in some miserable form, and there’s still a world of pressure on him. With Jannik Sinner suspended, Zverev should be using this time to find his way to the top of the ATP rankings for the first time in his career. Instead, the German has played some of his worst tennis in months. Of course, he has been a little better in Miami, but his wins came against Jacob Fearnley and Jordan Thompson. Fils is far more talented, explosive and confident than both of them.
Zverev will simply need to be at the top of his game to win this comfortably, and he hasn’t been there since the Australian Open semifinals. So, Fils should have a great shot at winning a set, and it isn’t crazy to envision him in the winner’s circle. Fils has won at least a set in each of his last three meetings with Zverev, and he beat him outright in Halle last June.
Bet: Fils +1.5 Sets (-120 – 1.5 units) & Fils ML (+260 – 0.5 units)
Francisco Cerundolo vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Cerundolo is a different player in Miami. After beating up on Tommy Paul on Sunday, the Argentine did the same to Casper Ruud in a 6-4, 6-2 victory on Tuesday. Cerundolo, who had his big ATP breakthrough at this tournament in 2022, likes the crowd support he gets here. It gives him the comfort he needs to avoid some of the costly mistakes he makes in big matches elsewhere. However, Dimitrov is also phenomenal in Miami. In fact, he’s coming off a run to the final here last year. The quicker conditions and low bounces make Dimitrov’s game all the more lethal. Well, with both players enjoying this venue and coming in hot, the right thing to do is back the better, more consistent player. That’s Dimitrov.
Dimitrov is a far more reliable server than Cerundolo. In fact, TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations just gave him a serve quality of 9.3 in his win over Brandon Nakashima. That’s his best serving performance of the season. Dimitrov is one of the best servers on the ATP Tour, and that’s actually a weakness in Cerundolo’s game. I also prefer Dimitrov’s baseline game. Sure, Cerundolo’s forehand is a bigger weapon than Dimitrov’s, but the Bulgarian’s slice should allow him to control points and throw the Argentine off. Dimitrov is also good about knowing when to come to the net and finish points off.
Dimitrov’s floor is just way higher than Cerundolo’s, and he’s also a much smarter player. In the end, that should be enough for him to advance.
Bet: Dimitrov ML (-128 – 1.5 units)
Emma Raducanu vs. Jessica Pegula
Raducanu has always played Pegula pretty well. In 2022, at the Cincinnati Open, Pegula came away with a 7-5, 6-4 win over Raducanu in a match that could have easily gone either way. Then, last year, Raducanu beat Pegula 4-6, 7-6 (6), 7-5 in Eastbourne. That last one was right during a summer in which Pegula was scorching hot, winning 1000 level events and reaching the US Open final. The interesting thing about that is that Raducanu’s 2024 level was nowhere close to what we have seen in Miami this week. So, if Raducanu can just keep it up, she should have a shot in this match.
Raducanu has served very well in South Beach, which is why she has been able to knock off Emma Navarro, McCartney Kessler and Amanda Anisimova. And if she doesn’t completely fall apart as a server here, that’s somewhere she could have an edge over Pegula. The American is so solid in a number of different areas, but she’s not quite good enough as a server to beat down talented opponents. And Raducanu also happens to be super aggressive as a serve returner, so she’s going to test Pegula as often as possible.
I also just like Raducanu’s willingness to play quick-strike tennis, as that is rewarded in these conditions. So, I’m taking Raducanu to win a set, and I’m also sprinkling the moneyline.
Bet: Raducanu +1.5 Sets (-149 – 1.5 units) & Raducanu ML (+190 – 0.5 units)
