On Sunday, May 4th, we’ll see Jack Draper look to win his second Masters 1000 title of the season. The Brit won the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, and he has been one of the top players in the world all year. However, Draper will be taking on Casper Ruud in the Mutua Madrid Open final, and the Norwegian has always been a remarkable clay-court player. So, it’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. With that out of the way, keep reading for a preview of Ruud versus Draper in Spain.
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Casper Ruud vs. Jack Draper Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sports book and accurate as of Friday, May 2nd at 11:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Draper -215, Ruud +160
Spread: Draper -2.5 Games (-120), Ruud +2.5 Games (-110)
Total: Over 22.5 Games (-125), Under 22.5 Games (-105)
How To Watch Casper Ruud vs. Jack Draper
Where: Caja Magica in Madrid, Spain
When: Sunday, May 4th at 12:30 pm ET
Channel: Tennis Channel / Tennis Channel App
Casper Ruud vs. Jack Draper Predictions
Ruud, a two-time Roland Garros runner-up and winner of a 500-level title in Barcelona, will be competing on his favorite surface when he looks to win his first 1000-level event. However, the Norwegian enters the match carrying a rib injury sustained during warmups of his semi-final against Francisco Cerundolo, which required painkillers and cast doubt on his ability to finish that match. Ruud’s path has been impressive, saving 15 of 18 break points in the semifinal, but Draper is in scorching form, boasting a 19-5 record in 2025. The Brit also won Indian Wells and hasn’t dropped a set in Madrid so far.
Draper, now solidified as a top-five player on tour, has shown remarkable versatility and resilience on clay, a surface not traditionally favorable to British players. At 23, he’s reached his best clay-court result, defeating Lorenzo Musetti in straight sets to reach the final. Draper’s game features a powerful backhand and a strong serve, both of which have troubled opponents throughout the season. His forehand, while considered his weaker wing, remains formidable, using heavy spin and angles to control rallies. Draper’s superior serving and returning give him a clear edge over Ruud, who has fewer tactical options beyond heavy topspin forehands to disrupt Draper’s rhythm.
Although Ruud could attempt to outlast Draper physically by mimicking Musetti’s strategy of moving him side to side, Draper’s conditioning has been exceptional in 2025, making that approach unlikely to succeed.
Ruud’s injury and Draper’s momentum suggest an uphill battle for the Norwegian, making Draper a strong pick to claim his second Masters 1000 title of the year. However, I’m laying 2.5 games instead of taking a heavily juiced moneyline. Draper’s ability to return should allow him to cover this small spread.
Pick: Draper -2.5 Games (-120)
