On Saturday, May 3rd, Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka will meet in the final of the Mutua Madrid Open. This has been a fun rivalry over the years, as they have met in the finals of a couple of majors. They also met at the WTA Finals last year, when Gauff beat Sabalenka in the semifinals and then punctuated an awesome finish to the 2024 season with a win over Qinwen Zheng. However, while Gauff finished off the 2024 season on a tear, it’s Sabalenka that is scorching hot to start 2025. So, we’re in for a fun battle in this final. With all of that out of the way, keep reading for a preview of Gauff versus Sabalenka in Spain.
I also post more tennis predictions on the VSiN picks page. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks. I’ll also post plays for smaller tournaments on that page.
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Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sports book and accurate as of Friday, May 2nd at 2:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sabalenka -125, Gauff +100
Spread: Sabalenka -1.5 (-110), Gauff +1.5 (-110)
Total: Over 21.5 Games (-125), Under 21.5 Games (-105)
How To Watch Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Where: Caja Magica in Madrid, Spain
When: Saturday, May 3rd at 12:30 pm ET
Channel: Tennis Channel / Tennis Channel App
Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka Notes
If you looked at the VSiN picks page before the tournament, you might have caught that I risked 1.5 units to win 6 units on Sabalenka to win this tournament at +400. Well, with that being the case, I’m not doing anything but looking for opportunities to hedge this. If I see Gauff available at +130 or so at any point, I’ll probably throw a 2-unit play on the American to guarantee myself some profits here.
Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka Predictions
Social media can be brutal, especially when it comes to Sabalenka and her recent run of three final losses since early 2025. But let’s not forget what gets lost in the noise: Sabalenka has also claimed big wins in Brisbane and Miami, and reaching five finals in just four months is no small accomplishment. Now, she’s heading into her sixth final of the season, set to face Gauff for the Madrid Open title. Picking a winner isn’t easy, but Sabalenka’s consistency and aggressive style make her hard to overlook — especially at a match that is pretty close to a pick’em.
Gauff, for her part, has been phenomenal in Madrid, especially with her convincing win over Iga Swiatek. When her serve and forehand are clicking, she looks like she’ll easily add to her Grand Slam trophy case. However, Gauff’s occasional dips in form, as seen in tournaments like Indian Wells and Miami, make her a riskier bet against someone as reliable as Sabalenka.
Even if Sabalenka comes up short, her track record over the past year is unmatched, and she’s adapted her game to be even more dangerous. With her power, improved movement and comfort on Madrid’s clay, Sabalenka is as complete a player as you’ll find right now. That said, you should be willing to lose on the right side. You won’t get many opportunities to play Sabalenka as this small of a favorite the rest of the season. So, I’d suggest ignoring the reverse line movement — which is pretty evident when looking at our VSiN tennis splits — and backing the better player. If you take Gauff and she loses, you’ll end up kicking yourself.
Match Lean: Sabalenka ML (-118)
