Mutua Madrid Open Predictions for Friday, May 2nd
The top players in the world are in Madrid for another couple of days, as we have reached the business end of the 2025 Mutua Madrid Open. I’ll be posting daily articles with my best bets for the action at the Caja Magica, so come back to VSiN if you’re looking to bet on some tennis. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
We’re entering the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, as there are several 1000-level events in the coming weeks. Those then flow into the majors, so everything heats up pretty quickly. We’ll be covering all of them, whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription!
With all of that in mind, check out my Mutua Madrid Open best bets for Friday, May 2nd.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Francisco Cerundolo vs. Casper Ruud
Cerundolo is having himself one hell of a season, as he’s tied for the most wins on tour in 2025. He’s also coming off a gritty comeback against Jakub Mensik to reach his second Masters semifinal. Meanwhile, Ruud has started to find his game over the last few weeks, but he’s still not playing up to his usual standard on clay. And he struggled mightily on hard courts to start the year. So, recent form definitely favors Cerundolo. So does the head-to-head history between these two. Cerundolo leads 5-3 in eight meetings and has won two of their four clay-court battles. He also whooped Ruud in straight sets win in Miami. That will be fresh in both of their minds.
Cerundolo is just peaking right now. He’s cut down on errors, improved his serve and remains one of the most dangerous players off the forehand wing. While Ruud’s serve and tactical play are slight advantages, Cerundolo’s consistency and all-court game have closed the gap. Both are natural clay-courters, but Cerundolo’s recent edge and momentum make him a strong pick to reach his first Masters final.
I’m especially interested in the backhand-to-backhand exchanges here. Ruud has made strides with that shot throughout his career, but Cerundolo’s has been much better than the Norwegian’s lately. That could be hard for Ruud to overcome given how even the forehand battle is.
Pick: Cerundolo ML (+110)
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Jack Draper
The price for Draper to win on the moneyline is a little too steep, so I’m taking the Brit to cover a 2.5-game spread. I have all the respect in the world for Musetti, and I have noted in the past that the Italian could win a major or two one day. However, Musetti didn’t look right in his win over Gabriel Diallo last round. The Italian was wearing an arm sleeve in that match, and I thought he lacked his explosiveness — as both a ball-striker and a mover. Perhaps fatigue is getting to him. He has been playing a lot of tennis lately, and he always seems to find himself in physical matches. So, even though Musetti is a more experienced clay-court player than Draper, it’s hard not to see this as a match the Brit should win.
Realistically, Draper has played as well as anyone this season. In fact, he was second on the ATP Tour in Elo rating for the 2025 season before Madrid, and he hasn’t done anything this tournament to warrant a drop. If anything, he might leap Carlos Alcaraz. Also, heading into the quarterfinals, Draper had Musetti beat in TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations’ serve quality, return quality and backhand quality. That said, the only place Musetti has Draper beat is on the forehand wing. Well, that might not be enough for the Italian to keep this thing close.
Draper has also dominated this head-to-head series, as he’s 3-0 in three career tour-level meetings with Musetti. The Italian also hasn’t won a set in their last two showdowns. Also, if there’s a clay-court event out there that would favor Draper in this matchup, it’s this one. With his big serve, the altitude makes him tougher to beat.
Pick: Draper -2.5 Games (-114)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
