Mutua Madrid Open Predictions for Saturday, April 26th
The top players in the world are in Madrid for a pair of 1000-level events this week, as it’s time for the 2025 Mutua Madrid Open. I’ll be posting daily articles with my best bets for the action at the Caja Magica, so come back to VSiN if you’re looking to bet on some tennis. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
We’re entering the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, as there are several 1000-level events in the coming weeks. Those then flow into the majors, so everything heats up pretty quickly. We’ll be covering all of them, whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription! It’s only $59 to get access to everything until August 1st!
With all of that in mind, check out my Mutua Madrid Open best bets for Saturday, April 26th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Belinda Bencic vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Jack Draper
Haddad Maia was able to beat Bernarda Pera in her opening-round match, but she’s just 3-12 since the start of the 2025 season. Haddad Maia’s hold percentage is down from 69.5% in 2024 to 58.1% in 2025. Her break percentage is also down from 34.8% in 2024 to 22.6% in 2025. She’s just not holding regularly or putting pressure on opponents as a returner. On top of that, it feels like her rally tolerance isn’t anywhere near where it was when she was a top-25 player on the WTA Tour. That said, I trust Bencic to come away with a win here. Bencic is 18-7 since the start of the 2025 season.
To get Bencic’s moneyline price down, I’m playing it with an alternate Over in a meeting between Griekspoor and Draper. This is a match that I expect the Brit to win, but the server-friendly conditions in Madrid should mean it’ll be a long one. Both of these players can rack up holds in a hurry, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we see a tiebreaker — or at least a 7-5 set. That would then require very little in the other set for an Over to hit.
PARLAY: Bencic ML & Griekspoor-Draper Over 20.5 Games (-142 – 1.5 units)
Alexandre Muller vs. Ugo Humbert
I’m not getting carried away with an Humbert fade, but i do think it’s worth going back to this for a little something. Humbert is currently playing with a broken hand, which is preventing him from really hitting from the backhand wing. So, while he’s still a good server, with a big forehand, he’s very exposed on one side of the court. Well, Muller is a smart player, so he’s going to test the backhand as often as possible. Muller has also had a lot of success on clay this year. So, I’m keeping this simple and putting some trust in Muller to handle a wounded opponent.
Pick: Muller ML (+110)
Nicolas Jarry vs. Grigor Dimitrov
If Jarry was performing like he did last season, I would have absolutely hammered him in this spot. However, the Chilean has been hard to trust in 2025, so I’m being a little cautious here. Still, I’m willing to risk quite a bit in this match, as the conditions are absolutely incredible for Jarry.
Jarry has always enjoyed playing altitude clay, which is why he has had so much success playing in Santiago (his home tournament). He has a massive serve and a big forehand, and he plays aggressively. All of that helps him shine in these conditions. Also, Dimitrov hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire with his play in 2025. He has been extremely inconsistent, and I think he’ll be gettable here. It’s hard winning with a one-handed backhand in Madrid.
Pick: Jarry +1.5 Sets (-154 – 1.5 units) & Jarry ML (+170 – 0.5 units)
Joao Fonseca vs. Tommy Paul
It’s a little crazy to see Fonseca favored over Paul in a 1000-level event, but how can you not like the Brazilian here? He just played a great match against Elmer Moller, showing that there was very little rust after a long post-Miami layoff. But that really isn’t all that crazy considering Fonseca grew up on this surface and has the perfect game for altitude clay. He has a massive serve, a huge forehand and the ability to hit opponents off the court. Well, I don’t think Paul will be an exception, even though he is an elite baseline defender. Paul has had an up-and-down season, and he has also had an up-and-down career on the dirt. He’s at his best when playing on grass and hard courts. So, look for Fonseca to push Paul around the court with his massive forehand, and don’t be surprised if the Brazilian has a lot of success as a returner here. Paul’s serve has gotten a lot better, but it’s still not great. Fonseca should have his chances to break, and we know he’ll be aggressive when he does. Also, Paul hasn’t played since losing in the final in Houston, so he’s battling rust and a tough matchup.
Pick: Fonseca ML (-140 – 1.5 units)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
