Mutua Madrid Open Predictions for Sunday, April 27th
The top players in the world are in Madrid for a pair of 1000-level events this week, as it’s time for the 2025 Mutua Madrid Open. I’ll be posting daily articles with my best bets for the action at the Caja Magica, so come back to VSiN if you’re looking to bet on some tennis. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
We’re entering the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, as there are several 1000-level events in the coming weeks. Those then flow into the majors, so everything heats up pretty quickly. We’ll be covering all of them, whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription! It’s only $59 to get access to everything until August 1st!
With all of that in mind, check out my Mutua Madrid Open best bets for Sunday, April 27th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Alexander Bublik vs. Andrey Rublev
It’s a bummer that this is one of the early matches on Sunday, as there’s just no way I’m going to get up to watch it live. However, this should be a fun showdown for whoever’s up. While Rublev is the defending champion in Madrid, this is a matchup that has troubled him in the past. These two have met eight times in their careers, and Bublik has won at least one set in six of those matches. On top of that, Bublik has beaten Rublev three times — though one of them was by disqualification in a very close match in Dubai last year. Still, Bublik’s ability to hammer serves and play unpredictable tennis from the baseline makes him a tough matchup for Rublev.
For as much power as Rublev possesses from the baseline, he has always left a lot to be desired as a server. So, if Bublik isn’t messing around with the ball on his racquet, there should be opportunities for him to win this match. The conditions are also quite good for him, as his serve isn’t going to be bothered and his drop shot is going to be effective on the clay.
Rublev could also be pretty rusty when he gets on the court, as he got a walkover in the Round of 64. So, Rublev hasn’t yet played a match here, which is strange at this point in the tournament. Meanwhile, Bublik has gotten his feet wet already, as he has earned wins over Alex Michelsen and Alexei Popyrin. He’s playing well and seems focused. When he’s focused, he’s more of a top-25 player than a top-100 player.
Pick: Bublik +1.5 Sets (-113 – 1.5 units) & Bublik ML (+270 – 0.5 units)
Rebeka Masarova vs. Peyton Stearns
Masarova is coming off an impressive 6-3, 6-3 win over Yulia Putintseva, and I don’t see her run ending here. Masarova earned some big wins in qualifying, beating Arantxa Rus and Sara Bejlek. Then, she took out Ajla Tomljanovic in the opening round before seeing Putintseva. She’s just looking very comfortable playing on this surface. And ultimately, the big difference between these two is the serve. When Masarova is playing her best tennis, she can be a difficult player to break. That’s valuable in Madrid. And while Stearns is a good returner and strong baseliner, her serve can be a huge problem. With that in mind, I just see this being a match in which Stearns will be working a lot harder than Masarova. I also think this is a bit of a letdown spot for Stearns, who just pulled out a tough win over Amanda Anisimova.
Pick: Masarova ML (+110 – 1.5 units)
Elina Svitolina vs. Elena Rybakina
Rybakina has won two matches in a row against Svitolina, and one of them happened to come at Roland Garros last year. That was a 6-4, 6-3 win for Rybakina, and it’s hard to imagine Svitolina having more success in Madrid. These conditions are absolutely perfect for Rybakina, who is arguably the best server on the WTA Tour. She also has a big baseline game to back it up. Theoretically, if Svitolina was going to get the better of Rybakina, that should have happened at last year’s French Open. Those conditions are slower and give players a better shot at getting Rybakina’s serve back. Here, with the speed of these courts, Rybakina should overwhelm her opponent.
The only thing to really worry about with Rybakina is her recent form. She lost her first match at the Miami Open, and that came after a beatdown at the hands of Mirra Andreeva in Indian Wells. But I thought Rybakina looked quite sharp against Bianca Andreescu in her first match here. And as long as she doesn’t completely break down mentally, this is a match she wins seven or eight times out of 10, which is why there’s good value on the -128.
Pick: Rybakina ML (-128 – 2 units)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
