Mutua Madrid Open Predictions for Thursday, May 1st
The top players in the world are in Madrid for a pair of 1000-level events this week, as it’s time for the 2025 Mutua Madrid Open. I’ll be posting daily articles with my best bets for the action at the Caja Magica, so come back to VSiN if you’re looking to bet on some tennis. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
We’re entering the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, as there are several 1000-level events in the coming weeks. Those then flow into the majors, so everything heats up pretty quickly. We’ll be covering all of them, whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription!
With all of that in mind, check out my Mutua Madrid Open best bets for Thursday, May 1st.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Casper Ruud vs. Daniil Medvedev
I really thought Fritz was going to beat Ruud last round, but the American just couldn’t find his rhythm on serve, and the numbers showed his forehand was off all match. That’s never going to be enough against Ruud, a top-five clay-court player who raised his level and took control when it mattered most. Now, instead of fading Ruud, I’m backing him to get past Medvedev in their upcoming quarterfinal. Medvedev has dominated their head-to-head, but this will be their first meeting on clay, which is a surface where Medvedev is merely above average, while Ruud is a two-time French Open runner-up. It’s also their first meeting since 2021. I’d argue Medvedev is a worse player than he was then, and Ruud is definitely a better one.
Medvedev’s serve isn’t the weapon it once was, and his defensive skills have slipped, making it tough to see how he’ll trouble Ruud on clay. Ruud’s heavy topspin forehand will push Medvedev off the baseline, and the Norwegian’s serve is underrated, especially at altitude. Movement will also be a factor. Medvedev is awkward on clay, while Ruud glides effortlessly and always seems ready to attack with his forehand. Given all this, it’s hard not to back Ruud on the moneyline, even with the odds a bit steep.
Pick: Ruud ML (-162 – 1.5 units)
Coco Gauff vs. Iga Swiatek
This is another match in which I’m taking somebody that beat me on Wednesday. I liked Mirra Andreeva to beat Gauff, but the Russian didn’t look right from the jump. To her credit, she somehow had a shot at serving out the first set, but it was one-way traffic after Andreeva served with a 5-4, 40-15 lead. Gauff broke in that game and never looked back.
What impressed me with Gauff is that she continued to serve extremely well. For the second match in a row, the American won 84.6% of her first serve points. Gauff has now made at least 56.5% of her serves in two of her last three matches, and she has kept her double fault percentage below 5.0% in two straight. If she can avoid a bad day as a server, I really like her chances here.
Swiatek once had Gauff’s number, winning seven straight matches and 14 consecutive sets against her. However, Gauff has now won two matches in a row against the Pole. Of course, neither of those wins came on clay, and we all know Swiatek is the Queen of Clay. But Swiatek has dropped at least a set in three of her four matches in Madrid thus far. And she has done so against worse players than Gauff. So, this isn’t the unbeatable version of Swiatek that we have seen in previous years. She’s gettable on the right day.
The key here will be for Gauff to take advantage of any looks she gets at the Swiatek second serve, and she should get plenty. Gauff also needs to continue to hit her forehand well, but I have been super impressed with what she has done on that side of the court this tournament. And that’s ultimately why I’m backing her. Gauff’s forehand can fall apart at any moment, but she’s a player you want to back when she’s rolling. Well, it’s looking like she’s rolling right now. So, at these prices, I’m willing to find out if she can keep it up.
Pick: Gauff +1.5 Sets (-164 – 1.5 units) & Gauff ML (+182 – 0.5 units)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
