On Friday, July 11th, Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner will battle for a spot in the 2025 Wimbledon finals. Just a month ago, Sinner beat Djokovic 6-4, 7-5, 7-6 (3) in the semifinals of the French Open at Roland Garros. However, this will be an entirely different match, as both players are in different places when it comes to health. This is also a grass-court event, which should level the playing field a bit. That said, let’s get into some analysis with a Djokovic vs. Sinner betting preview.
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Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Wednesday, July 9th at 5:30 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sinner -215, Djokovic +160
Spread: Sinner -3.5 Games (-125), Djokovic +3.5 Games (-110)
Total: Over 39.5 Games (-110), Under 39.5 Games (-120)
How To Watch Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner
Where: All England Club in London, England
When: Friday, July 11th
Channel: ESPN / ABC
Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner Predictions
Full disclosure: I won’t be playing anything in this match. I took Djokovic to win the tournament at +650 before it started, and I added Sinner to win the tournament at +460 before some positive injury news on the Italian came out Tuesday afternoon. With that in mind, I’m really just hoping the winner of this one is healthy heading into the finals. I would love a +460 or +650 with either one against Alcaraz. However, I’ll still get into the match a little, and I do have a lean.
The play I’d be making if forced into action here is the Over on 0.5 tiebreakers. These two have played a tiebreaker in each of their last three matches, including their meeting in the semifinals at Roland Garros in June. They have also played a tiebreaker in five of their last seven matches, and they played two of them when they met in round-robin action at the Nitto ATP Finals in 2023.
Djokovic is one of the best returners in the history of the sport, but he has had problems breaking Sinner in the past. He only got him once in Paris last month, which was pretty surprising considering how returner-friendly those slow conditions are. Well, I don’t see that changing when these two meet on grass. Sinner’s serve has been a little inconsistent against Carlos Alcaraz, but he likes serving against Djokovic. He also was a lot more careful with the ball on his racquet when he played Ben Shelton with an injured elbow in the quarterfinals. Sinner knows he needs to win some free points in order to preserve his body a little bit. And honestly, Djokovic is the same, but that has more to do with his age. He’s no longer capable of gutting out long rallies the way he used to, so he relies on pinpoint serving more than ever. Whether he’s hitting aces or setting up plus-one opportunities, he knows how valuable the easy points are. And that’ll only be ramped up with Djokovic having taken a spill late in his quarterfinal win over Flavio Cobolli.
Considering all of that, betting on this match to have at least one tiebreaker, especially at only -140 odds, feels like the best option. It’ll also give you the opportunity to watch this match without having to call the winner, which is very difficult to do.
RELATED: Check out my Fritz vs. Alcaraz preview!
However, if you’re not satisfied with a tiebreaker prop in one of the matches of the year, I completely get it. So, I’ll also say that I have a small lean on Over 38.5 Games. And, if you can stomach the juice, you can look to the Over on 3.5 sets instead.
The oddsmakers are telling us everything we need to know about this match. When DraftKings Sportsbook first opened their matchup at Roland Garros, Sinner was a -450 moneyline favorite. Here, at SW19, the Italian opened as a -215 favorite. Whether it’s the elbow injury or Djokovic’s ability to win on grass — the Serbian is a seven-time Wimbledon champion — they’re not expecting one-way traffic, like we saw in Sinner’s 6-4, 7-5, 7-6 (3) win in Paris.
There’s a little more that Djokovic can do to hurt Sinner in slicker conditions. His serve will be more effective, his variety will play up nicely and he won’t have to put everything he has into hitting through his younger rival. That last one is the big one. Djokovic doesn’t have quite as much effortless power as Sinner — or Alcaraz — anymore. Hitting the ball by them, or even getting them out of position, requires a lot of muscle from the 38-year-old. But it’s harder for everybody to defend on grass, so Djokovic gets a nice little boost from the back of the court. That’s especially big from the forehand wing, where Djokovic has one of the most lethal shots in the sport right now.
Lean: Over 0.5 Tiebreakers (-140)
