The 2025 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters is underway, signaling the true start of clay-court season. Some of the top players in the world are battling it out for the first 1000-level tournament on the dirt. This tournament, played at Monte-Carlo Country Club, should bring some real drama, as everybody wants to start off the European clay-court swing on a positive note.
I’m going to be doing daily tennis best bets throughout this tournament, and that continues with my Monte-Carlo best bets for Thursday, April 10th. I’ll include some of my favorite plays below, but I occasionally add some picks to the picks page. I’ll also have plays for other tournaments on that page, so it definitely pays to be a VSiN Pro. Our Summer Special is only $59 and covers you through August 1st. That means you’ll get a ton of my tennis picks and write-ups, as well as the content we provide for all other sports — including our live programming!
Arthur Fils vs. Andrey Rublev
It’s a shame I won’t be awake to watch this match live. These are two explosive players and they should make for good dancing partners on the slow clay in Monte-Carlo. However, I’ll throw it on a little later in the afternoon to see what I missed, and I have a feeling I’ll be watching a victory for the 20-year-old.
Last season, excluding the French Open, Fils had a stronger forehand and backhand on clay, according to shot quality scores from TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations. Well, Fils has only gotten stronger in 2025, as his winning percentage is higher than it has ever been. Meanwhile, Rublev continues to get worse and worse, as he’s just 10-7 since the start of the season. So, it’ll be interesting to see what the numbers look like in a few weeks. The eye test shows that Fils is a more dangerous baseliner than he was last year, and he has improved a lot in the point construction department. Well, Rublev has been the exact opposite. He used to be able to control rallies rather easily with his all-court power, but his talent doesn’t pop the same way it used to.
These two are also very similar when it comes to serving, as they both have good first serves and weak second serves. But I think Fils’ ability to return is a little more trustworthy than Rublev’s right now, giving him a slight edge in the serve-and-return department.
Fils’ athleticism is also a real strength in these incredibly slow conditions. He’s not necessarily known for being a grinder, but he can move around the court and make it very difficult to hit the ball by him. Also, while conditioning has been an issue for him in the past, it’s going to be cool in Monaco for this match. So, I don’t see him cramping up and having issues.
Considering all of that, this just feels like the right time to back the Frenchman. I also like that there’s some insane reverse line movement at play here. Our VSiN tennis betting splits show that Rublev is getting a lot of the tickets, but the Russian has gone from a -140 favorite to a +105 ‘dog at DraftKings.
Bet: Fils ML (-105)
Alexei Popyrin vs. Casper Ruud
Nuno Borges vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
I normally like my moneyline parlays to be -140 or better, but I want a piece of Ruud and Tsitsipas without having to lay any games. So, I’m willing to make an exception here.
With Ruud, we’re getting a player that is just fantastic on clay. Last week, Ruud won a UTS event in France, then he came over and beat Roberto Bautista Agut 6-2, 6-1 in his first match here. Over the last 52 weeks, only three players have won more matches on clay than the Norwegian, and he’s especially dangerous on a super slow court. Ruud is just so good at using his big topspin forehand to set up points, and that should ultimately make the difference against Popyrin. I don’t see a world in which the Australian finds a way to hold his own from the baseline, and Popyrin also happened to struggle mightily as a server against Frances Tiafoe last match. If he does that against Ruud, this is going to be a lopsided match.
For Tsitsipas, I’m not putting much into his struggles against Jordan Thompson last match. Tsitsipas is the defending champion in Monte-Carlo and has won this event three times in the last four years. There isn’t a venue in the world that brings out a better version of Tsitsipas, making it hard to imagine him losing to Borges. I’m a big fan of Borges’ solid all-around game, but Tsitsipas’ serve and forehand will be the biggest weapons on the court here. Also, this is one of the few tournaments in the world in which the Greek star can beat you from the backhand wing. He’s also great about coming to the net and finishing points on slower-developing surfaces. That said, I can’t see him letting this one slip away.
PARLAY: Ruud ML & Tsitsipas ML (-161 – 1.5 units)
