The final ATP Masters 1000 event of the 2024 tennis season is here, as the top players in the world are competing in Bercy for the Rolex Paris Masters. With that in mind, I’ll be handicapping all of the action over the next couple of days. That continues with my tennis predictions and best bets for Friday, November 1st. Keep reading for some of my favorite selections for this loaded slate.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 820-806 (+38.30 units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Alexander Zverev
Tsitsipas has been a disappointing player for years now. That might be harsh considering his place in the rankings, but it’s the truth. A few big titles don’t change that. This is a player with the talent to be one of the very best competitors in the sport, but some of his flaws are holding him back. However, we occasionally get some tremendous weeks out of him. After all, he won a Masters 1000 event in Monte-Carlo earlier in the year. When he has it going, he really has it going. And it feels like this could be one of those weeks.
I backed Tsitsipas to cover a 2.5-game spread against Francisco Cerundolo last match, and he ended up rolling the Argentinean after dropping the first set. In that match, TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations had Tsitsipas with a forehand Shot Quality of 9.3 in the second set and 9.8 in the third. When Tsitsipas has his forehand going, it’s one of the biggest weapons in the sport. And for as good as that shot has been throughout his career, there has been a slight dip in it this season. So, the fact that he built the confidence up from that wing is big heading into this meeting with Zverev.
With Tsitsipas being an elite server and also having the forehand going, it’s just hard to imagine Zverev beating him in straight sets. I know the German is one of the best servers on the planet, but he plays a very passive style from the baseline. So, Tsitsipas’ aggressive tennis should help him take it to him in these speeding fast conditions. The speed of these courts helped Tsitsipas beat Zverev 7-6 (2), 6-4 when they played in this tournament in 2023. And they have only gotten faster since. Of course, that speed will make things difficult for Tsitsipas to hit his backhand, as that’s the shot that has haunted him lately. But Zverev’s forehand is also a leaky shot. So both of these players will be able to target a weakness.
The reality here is that Tsitsipas is 10-5 in 15 career meetings with Zverev. The Greek star has also won three of his last four against him. This has just been a good matchup for Tsitsipas, and I don’t see things changing too much here. I’m rolling with Tsitsipas to win a set in this one, which is something he has done in seven of his last eight matches against Zverev. However, I’m also sprinkling the moneyline, as I think Tsitsipas’ quick-strike tennis will be more effective than Zverev’s pushing.
Bet: Tsitsipas +1.5 Sets (-165 – 1.5 units) & Tsitsipas ML (+200 – 0.5 units)
Holger Rune vs. Alex De Minaur
This is a pretty tough match to call, but I am taking a shot on Rune to win it. This is a very small play for me — I rarely go less than a unit on a single match — and I don’t feel nearly as strongly about this one as I do the previous one. However, I want to have a little something on Rune, as he’s playing some of his best tennis of the season right now.
Rune, who has always been a great player on indoor hard courts, is just striking the ball brilliantly from both wings. He’s also serving and returning at an extremely high level. The latter is pretty interesting because the return game has been a big problem for Rune this year. Now that he’s seeing the ball well, you’d think he should have some success against De Minaur. The Australian has really improved as a server over the years, but he still gives his opponents good looks. And that’s one of the big things for me in this match. I just think Rune will have a much easier time holding with the extra pop he has on his serve indoors.
The baseline battle will also be interesting. De Minaur is one of the best defensive players on tour, but the speed of the courts takes away from that ability. And with how hard Rune can rip the ball, it could be hard for De Minaur to keep rallies alive. Also, these two have met twice on indoor hard courts, with both meetings coming in 2022. Rune won both of those matches. That’s not surprising considering Rune’s best career results have come in these conditions. In fact, the Dane has won this very tournament.
Bet: Rune ML (+110 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
