The final ATP Masters 1000 event of the 2026 tennis season is here, as the top players in the world are competing at the Paris La Defense Arena for the Rolex Paris Masters. With that in mind, I’ll be handicapping all of the action over the next week or so. That continues with my Day 4 tennis predictions and best bets for Thursday, November 5. Keep reading for some of my favorite selections for this loaded slate, but don’t stop there. Gill Alexander will be posting his best bets on the VSiN picks page daily, and I’ll also be adding some additional plays there.
Arthur Rinderknech vs. Ben Shelton
Shelton made headlines this week with the news that he’ll be adding Juan Carlos Ferrero to his team in 2027. That should be an interesting partnership, especially with Bryan Shelton still on board. We’ll see what that group can do in a couple of months, but there’s still some 2026 season left. For now, Shelton is still the same player.
Shelton should have some major advantages over Rinderknech here, with his athleticism and court coverage leading the list. However, he still has a glaring weakness: his backhand just isn’t up to standard. He can also get a bit wild on the court. All of that should give Rinderknech opportunities in this match.
Rinderknech doesn’t offer much beyond a big serve and quick-strike attacking, but he knows exactly what he needs to do to win matches. That clarity could be big against an erratic opponent. He just needs to hit his spots on serve, even if that means taking a little velocity off to target Shelton’s backhand. If he does that, we should see at least one tiebreaker.
In these kinds of matches, I like having the underdog on the set spread — and a sprinkle on the moneyline. With the crowd on his side, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Rinderknech get over the finish line.
Bet: Rinderknech +1.5 Sets (-114 – 1.5 units) & Rinderknech ML (+280 – 0.5 units)
Nuno Borges vs. Ignacio Buse
Buse is rapidly improving on hard courts, and it’s only a matter of time before docking him for playing outside his preferred conditions is no longer an option. In fact, after his win over Daniil Medvedev on Wednesday, it’s entirely possible that time has already come. However, as someone who values the numbers, I still think Borges is the right call here. Heading into this week, Borges had a hard-court Elo rating of 1774.6, comfortably ahead of Buse’s 1670.3.
Borges’s game also happens to be built to thrive in these conditions. He hits flat and deep, and his approach here should be to push Buse back and rush his shots. In the end, I think he’ll be able to do that.
Bet: Borges ML (-119 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
