Thursday night’s primetime meeting between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens will be played without Lamar Jackson, who is set to undergo thumb surgery. That makes things even more interesting than usual. Keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 9 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Jaguars vs. Ravens
When: Thursday, November 5 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland
Channel: Prime Video
Jaguars vs. Ravens Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Tuesday, November 3. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Jaguars -470, Ravens +360
Spread: Jaguars -9.5 (-108), Ravens +9.5 (-112)
Total: Over 41.5 (-112), Under 41.5 (-108)
Jaguars vs. Ravens Analysis
Our betting splits pages likely won’t surprise anyone this week. As of publishing time (12:30 pm ET on Tuesday, November 3), 83% of the tickets at DraftKings were on Jacksonville, and there was also a small majority of tickets on the Jaguars at Circa Sports. It seems that casual bettors have no interest in backing the Ravens’ new quarterback room. With Jackson and Tyler Huntley both dealing with injuries, that room now consists of Joe Fagnano, Kedon Slovis, and Austin Reed. That group is more random than Peter Klaven’s groomsmen in “I Love You, Man.”
It goes without saying that Baltimore’s passing game won’t be explosive this week. However, it does feel like a mistake to complete write the Ravens off. Baltimore still has Derrick Henry to lean on. The 32-year-old has lost some pop, but he’s still physical enough to pound away with. The Ravens could look to ride the veteran, hoping to grind out a win in a low-scoring game. Doing so against Jacksonville will be a little easier this week than most, as the team is missing DaVon Hamilton and has Travon Walker dealing with a rib injury.
Of course, Baltimore will need to be sound defensively in order to win a throwback-style game. The Ravens are just a middle-of-the-pack defensive team this season, ranking 16th in Dropback EPA/Play Allowed (0.077) and 22nd in Rush EPA/Play Allowed (-0.078). That said, this isn’t the Baltimore defense of old. But it should be noted that Trevor Lawrence, like most quarterbacks, isn’t as sharp when playing on the road.
The Jaguars offense also benefits greatly from a defense which creates a ton of turnovers, setting Lawrence and Co. up with great field position. That said, if Baltimore’s offense can avoid giving the ball away, the defense should have a much better shot at slowing down Liam Coen’s offense.
It’s also worth mentioning that the Ravens are still plenty talented offensively. They’re going to give Henry every opportunity to win this game on the ground, but they’ll still have weapons like Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews available when they do drop back to pass. Declan Doyle has also proven to be a strong play caller, so there’s a chance he’ll put together a solid game plan — even with everything working against him.
I just don’t think Baltimore should be getting more than a touchdown at home. This team still has a lot to play for, and winning night games in M&T Bank Stadium is always difficult on the visitor.
Jaguars vs. Ravens Player Props
LEAN: Henry Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-127)
As always, I suggest checking out our OptaAI player prop projections. While I’m not playing any player props in this one, we have VSiN Pro subscribers covered with hundreds of Week 9 NFL player prop projections, and that includes a bunch for this Thursday Night Football matchup. However, if I had to play something, I’d take the Over on Henry’s rushing attempts. It has been three games since Henry’s last 18-carry performance, but we should see a real commitment to getting him touches here. It’s Baltimore’s only pathway to victory.
Jaguars vs. Ravens Pick
If you look around, you should be able to find some palatable prices to grab 10 or 10.5 with Baltimore. That’s exactly what I’m doing with this one, and I’m also putting a quarter-unit on the moneyline at +410. The NFL is a strange league. When something seems obvious, we usually see the opposite happen. Also, good teams find ways to overcome short-term struggles, and I feel the Ravens can do exactly that. So, while I’m not expecting a masterpiece from the Baltimore offense, I think the Ravens can avoid embarrassment.
Bet: Ravens +10.5 (-127) & Ravens ML (+410 – 0.25 units)
