The final ATP Masters 1000 event of the 2026 tennis season is here, as the top players in the world are competing at the Paris La Defense Arena for the Rolex Paris Masters. With that in mind, I’ll be handicapping all of the action over the next week or so. That continues with my Day 3 tennis predictions and best bets for Wednesday, November 4. Keep reading for some of my favorite selections for this loaded slate, but don’t stop there. Gill Alexander will be posting his best bets on the VSiN picks page daily, and I’ll also be adding some additional plays there.
Quentin Halys vs. Frances Tiafoe
Halys has struggled with the pressure of playing in his home 1000, as it took him seven years to pick up his first main-draw victory in this event. That victory came in the first round of this year’s tournament, with Halys earning a hard-fought 7-6 (6), 7-5 win over Arthur Fery. Well, now that the monkey is off his back, it’ll be interesting to see if Halys will be able to play somewhat freely. If he can, I like his chances against Tiafoe.
Everything Halys wants to do is built around his power. The Frenchman has a massive serve, plus he likes to end baseline exchanges quickly — even though he’s a solid grinder when he wants to be. Halys does the latter by stepping into the court and making early contact. Well, if Halys is on as a server in this match, I think his baseline style can get to Tiafoe. Obviously, the American is one hell of a player, and he has very few holes in his game. However, he does have some mechanical issues, with his forehand taking quite some time to get ready for contact. That said, Halys should be able to rush Tiafoe’s process in this one.
Realistically, Tiafoe’s best shot at winning this match would be to extend rallies, but the court conditions in Paris currently favor big ball-striking. The speed of the courts at this year’s tournament has been surprising to some players, as they’re playing much faster than usual. Let’s see if Halys, who will have the crowd in his corner, can use that to his advantage.
Bet: Halys ML (+134)
Daniel Merida Aguilar vs. Tommy Paul
It’s not that surprising to see Merida as a huge underdog against Paul, as the Spaniard hasn’t yet won over the public. Meanwhile, everyone on the planet knows Paul, as he’s an American who has gone deep at several Grand Slams. However, based on everything we have seen from these players in 2026, it’s hard to understand how Merida is available at +340 on the moneyline — and plus-money odds on the set spread. Merida’s +340 odds suggest he has a 23% chance of winning this match, and I give him a much higher chance than that.
Over the last 52 weeks, when playing on hard courts, TennisViz has very little separating these two players from the baseline. Both players have a Forehand Quality score of 7.7 out of 10, while Paul’s 7.4 Backhand Quality gives him a slight edge over Merida’s 7.2. The main difference between these two has been the Serve Quality, with Paul up at 8.1 and Merida down at 7.5. However, Merida’s break percentage this season is 30.5%, which is one of the best marks on tour. Paul’s is down at 24.5%. The fact that this tournament is played indoors will also make the Merida serve a little tougher to return, which could even the playing field when thinking about the overall serve-return package.
I also feel that Merida’s weakness isn’t nearly as damaging as Paul’s. While Paul has a great backhand, his forehand can really get in his way in big matches. Well, Merida’s forehand is an absolute weapon, and his backhand likely won’t be the reason he loses this match.
These players both understand the importance of staying solid, so this should be a long, physical match. But I like Merida’s attacking from the forehand wing to give him some chances to win.
Bet: Merida +1.5 Sets (+102 – 1.5 units) & Merida ML (+340 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
