The Rolex Paris Masters continues at Paris La Défense Arena, hosting the world’s top ATP stars in one of the calendar’s final marquee events. Each round brings high stakes for contenders looking to snag valuable ranking points and secure a place at the upcoming ATP Finals. With proven stars and rising talents in action, the slate on Friday, October 31 promises plenty of intrigue for tennis fans and bettors. Keep reading for some of my tennis best bets and predictions.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Alexander Bublik vs. Alex de Minaur
This match is going to be pretty interesting, as de Minaur just qualified for the ATP Finals. The Australian surely wants to try and win a 1000-level title this week, but I do wonder if he’ll have his foot fully on the gas in this one. Meanwhile, Bublik keeps talking about how much being in the top-10 means to him. That said, this is a match he will really want to win, as he’s so close to achieving that milestone that he can taste it.
Bublik’s game is also pretty damn perfect for these conditions. His serve is big enough to be a weapon even in the slower conditions. The same is also true of his dangerous baseline strokes. Bublik also has a little more time to do damage as a returner, and he’s a little livelier in longer rallies.
Bublik also happened to beat de Minaur the last time they played, winning 2-6, 2-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 at Roland Garros. That might have been a clay-court battle, but there’s a chance this match is very similar when it comes to physicality.
Realistically, this match is a coin toss, at the very least. That means +130 on Bublik is great value. And I really believe Bublik should be favored.
Bet: Bublik ML (+130 – 2 units)
Ben Shelton vs. Jannik Sinner
Sinner has won six matches in a row against Shelton, but they have played a tiebreaker in all seven of their matches. And if Shelton can force at least one breaker in this match, this one really should go Over. In this head-to-head series, Sinner has only won one set by a score of 6-1 or better. That’s what it will take for this match to go Under if the two play a tiebreaker in the other set.
Shelton is also a dangerous player on slower indoor hard courts. We just saw that in his win over Andrey Rublev. The American becomes a little better as a returner, plus his athleticism makes it very difficult to get the ball by him. On top of that, his serve is still a major strength when he’s not wildly off.
There’s obviously a world in which Sinner wins this match very easily. He’s playing some very good tennis right now, and he’s also outstanding in these conditions. But Shelton is a hard player to wipe the floor with.
Bet: Over 20.5 Games (-120)
Daniil Medvedev vs. Alexander Zverev
Medvedev has really dominated Zverev in this head-to-head series. Medvedev has won five matches in a row against Zverev, and he has also won eight of the last nine. Medvedev also happens to be coming off a straightforward 6-3, 6-3 win over the German in Beijing a couple of weeks ago.
It just says a lot that Medvedev continues to beat up on Zverev, even with his game running hot and cold for the better part of two years now. Medvedev is just a world-class returner, and Zverev isn’t good enough at hitting his spots as a server. That means that Medvedev is able to redirect Zverev’s pace and get himself in a lot of points when the German is serving. Medvedev also has an elite backhand, which takes away an advantage Zverev has over everybody else.
Medvedev also happens to be serving much better recently. Plus, his baseline game has been a little sharper since making a coaching change. All of that makes it hard not to like Medvedev to prevail here.
Bet: Medvedev ML (-111 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
