Rome tennis best bets for May 7th
The best players in the world are in Rome for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia over the next two weeks. This is the final clay-court 1000 of the year, so all of the men and women are going to be motivated here. Not only is winning a trophy at the Foro Italico important, but this is also a tournament in which you can really build some momentum heading into the French Open. So, I’m going to be handicapping all of these matches, meaning you should come back to VSiN for daily tennis best bets. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
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MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Sorana Cirstea vs. Caroline Dolehide
Dolehide is a talented player, but she has only played 19 clay-court matches at the WTA level. She’s also just 2-4 on the dirt over the last 52 weeks, and we just saw her struggle at a lower-level tournament in Saint Malo last week. That said, I find it hard to believe she’s going to beat Cirstea in Rome. Of course, Cirstea has battled some injuries and simply hasn’t been the same caliber player she was back in 2023. That’s why she’s currently No. 131 in the world. However, Cirstea is a former world No. 21 that nobody wants to see in a draw. And that’s especially true on clay, where she has won 99 matches throughout her career.
Dolehide undoubtedly packs a bigger punch than Cirstea from the baseline, and there will be rallies in which the American’s aggressiveness gets to the Romanian. However, Dolehide is a little one-dimensional. She is going to need more than just power to win on these courts, and Cirstea has the all-court ability to rattle the American.
Cirstea just needs to have a decent day as a server. If she does, her edge along the baseline should be too much for Dolehide to overcome.
Pick: Cirstea ML (-110)
Victoria Azarenka vs. Camila Osorio
Azarenka has been abysmal to start the 2025 season, as she’s just 4-7 through 11 matches. But I’d be pretty surprised if she doesn’t turn things around soon. At 35 years old, Azarenka’s best days on the WTA Tour are definitely behind her. However, she was 30-15 in 2024 and a drop-off from winning 66.7% of her matches to 36.4% seems way too drastic. Azarenka should start to serve a lot better, as she held at 70.7% or better in back-to-back years before dropping to 56.1% this year. I also tend to think that these conditions could be good for her. Azarenka’s movement isn’t what it was in her prime, so slower conditions should allow her to track down more shots. She’ll also have plenty of time to set her feet and rip shots. And if that’s the case, I like the value on her to beat Osorio.
Osorio absolutely loves the clay, where her ability to grind out long rallies makes her very difficult to beat. But Osorio can be a little too defensive. She really lacks the ability to finish rallies without extracting errors out of her opponents. So, if Azarenka can take advantage of more time on the ball and cleanly strike from both wings, she should have a shot at winning this match. With her ability to punish the ball, the match will at least be on her racquet. She just can’t afford to implode as a server, or rack up unforced errors. But either way, I’m willing to take the plus-money odds and hope for the best.
Pick: Azarenka ML (+120)
Corentin Moutet vs. Rinky Hijikata
Laslo Djere vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry
I’m throwing in a two-leg parlay for the first full day of action in Rome. It starts with Moutet to beat Hijikata early in the day. Moutet is a difficult player to trust, as he’s a complete head case and can have a bit of a breakdown at any moment. But Hijikata is just 1-7 in tour-level matches on the dirt, which is pretty wild for a player that has been playing at the ATP level for a couple of years now. Meanwhile, Moutet is a fantastic clay-court player, where his big lefty forehand allows him to push opponents around the court. Then, he finishes rallies with his awesome drop shot, or his ability to find angles. He’s also very good at the net for a smaller player. That said, Moutet is going to be a tricky player for Hijikata to play against. I think the Frenchman has a little too much he can throw at Hijikata to fluster him.
In order to get a better price on Moutet, I’m playing him with Djere to win a set against Etcheverry. Now, this is a match between two players that can be very dangerous on the clay, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Argentine comes away with a win. But given Djere’s clay-court pedigree, I can’t see him losing without getting on the board. Djere actually beat Etcheverry 7-6 (2), 6-3 in their only previous meeting, and that was on an outdoor clay court in Hamburg two years ago. Well, Djere has only gotten better since then. The Serbian is actually playing some great tennis in 2025, as he’s 10-5 and won a title in Santiago. As of right now, he has the highest winning percentage he has ever had at the ATP level (66.7%). So, in favorable conditions, I can’t see him going down without a fight. Etcheverry hasn’t been himself this year.
PARLAY: Moutet ML & Djere +1.5 Sets (-110 – 1.5 unit)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
