Rome tennis best bets for May 15th
The best players in the world are in Rome for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the next couple of days. This is the final clay-court 1000 of the year, so all of the men and women are motivated here. Not only is winning a trophy at the Foro Italico important, but this is also a tournament in which you can really build some momentum heading into the French Open. So, I’m going to be handicapping all of these matches, meaning you should come back to VSiN for daily tennis best bets. Keep reading for my picks for Thursday, May 15th. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
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MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Peyton Stearns vs. Jasmine Paolini
I faded Stearns in her last match, as the American was vomiting after beating Naomi Osaka in a third-set tiebreaker in her previous match. Well, I’m not going away from fading a worn-down player here. I’m well aware that Stearns has a great clay-court record over the last 52 weeks, and it stung losing my game spread with Elina Svitolina on Tuesday. However, Stearns has now played three matches in a row in which she has needed to win a third-set tiebreaker. She absolutely has to be tired heading into the semifinals, and this match is going to be very different from the last one. Whereas Stearns was able to win over the crowd in the quarterfinals, the fans will be rooting against her in a big way in the semis.
This Italian crowd absolutely loves Paolini, who was born in Castelnuovo di Garfagnana. So, they’re going to be going absolutely insane as they look to help her get to the final. Also, Paolini has been tremendous on this surface over the last two years, she’s a better server and returner than her opponent and she also has some of the biggest weapons on the court in this match. Her flat two-handed backhand should give Stearns some problems, and so will her net play.
Considering all of that, I’m hoping Paolini can win this match by three or more games. If you don’t want to follow suit and lay the games, I’d look into parlaying Paolini moneyline with Hubert Hurkacz +5.5 games against Tommy Paul. That’ll get you down to a -120 price with Paolini, and I think Hurkacz’s serve is good enough to keep him from getting embarrassed by Paul. But I’m good with laying the games. I can see a close set somewhere along the way, and I can even see Paolini losing one. But I like the Italian to run away with at least one against an exhausted opponent.
Pick: Paolini -2.5 Games (-138 – 1.5 units)
Casper Ruud vs. Jannik Sinner
This is a pretty interesting matchup to handicap. I thought Ruud would be exhausted after having won a title in Madrid last week, but he is riding this wave and hoping to head into Roland Garros with the most momentum possible. I supposed it still wouldn’t be surprising if an emotional couple of weeks catches up to him soon, but Ruud is also facing a player that is playing his first tournament since January. And heading into Rome, I thought Sinner’s lack of match play and match fitness would catch up to him around the quarterfinals. So, while it’s never really the right time to be facing a dominant player like Sinner, perhaps Ruud is getting him at a time in which he’s most vulnerable.
As long as Ruud doesn’t run out of steam, this is a match in which I’d expect the Norwegian to keep things close. Sinner has dominated this head-to-head series in the past, but this is their first meeting on clay. And one of the things that has been noticeable in Sinner’s return to action is that his forehand isn’t quite as sharp as it was earlier in the year. Well, if you’re even remotely shaky from either wing, Ruud is the last player you want to see. Ruud is going to hammer his topspin forehand into the Sinner forehand and test that shot early on. And the Norwegian’s ability to get that ball up extremely high could make Sinner uncomfortable.
Ruud is also a very underrated server, and he might even be the best server Sinner has faced in this tournament. So, the Italian isn’t going to have as easy of a time breaking as he has in previous matches.
It should also be noted that Sinner has Ruud crushed in Elo rating overall, as the Italian’s is up at 2209.6 and the Norwegian’s is down at 1988.1. However, on clay, Sinner’s is just 2036.3 and Ruud’s is 1984.3. So, while Sinner is a much better player than Ruud, the difference isn’t nearly as big on the dirt. That makes it worth taking a shot on Ruud on his favorite surface.
Pick: Ruud +1.5 Sets (+105 – 1.5 units) & Ruud ML (+310 – 0.5 units)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
