Rome tennis best bets for May 13th
The best players in the world are in Rome for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia for the next week. This is the final clay-court 1000 of the year, so all of the men and women are motivated here. Not only is winning a trophy at the Foro Italico important, but this is also a tournament in which you can really build some momentum heading into the French Open. So, I’m going to be handicapping all of these matches, meaning you should come back to VSiN for daily tennis best bets. Keep reading for my picks for Tuesday, May 13th. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
We’re in the midst of the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, and we’re covering all of it at VSiN — whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Arthur Fils vs. Alexander Zverev
Zverev has taken it on the chin for his lackluster play since the Australian Open, but he really looks to be figuring things out now. The German has won nine of his last 10 matches, and he won a clay-court title in Munich a week before heading to Madrid. Now, Zverev will look to keep things rolling in Rome, where he’s the defending champion. Of course, Fils is a very difficult player to beat. We saw the Frenchman beat Zverev in a tight match at the Miami Open, and the 20-year-old is knocking on the door of the ATP’s Top 10. But this is a slower clay-court event, and this is where Zverev truly thrives.
It’s hell playing Zverev in slower conditions because his serve is a weapon anywhere, but that’s not the same for everybody else. So, while he’s going to continue to rack up holds, his opponents can’t quite do that. It’s harder to win easy points in extremely gritty conditions, and that’s especially true against Zverev. The German is 6-foot-6 and he uses that size to get a ton of returns back. That’s part of why his break percentage is 27.6% on clay over the last 52 weeks, and that’s a good number when considering the ease with which he holds.
Zverev’s length and athleticism also come in handy along the baseline, where he makes it impossible to hit the ball by him. And when he does get to the ball, his backhand is as big of a weapon as there is in this sport. And if you happen to catch him on a good forehand day, it’s over.
As far as this match goes, I just don’t think Fils is a good enough returner to put pressure on the Zverev serve. Also, the slower conditions are going to neutralize Fils’ first serve a bit, making life easier on Zverev as a returner. That’s problematic for Fils because he also happens to have a miserable second serve. That said, if he’s not deadly accurate with his first serve here, he’s going to be swimming upstream a little too often in this match.
Pick: Zverev ML (-150)
Tommy Paul vs. Alex de Minaur
De Minaur is 5-0 against Paul in this head-to-head series, and I’m not sure what’s going to change in this matchup. A year or two ago, an argument could have been made that Paul was the better clay-court player, but that doesn’t hold up anymore. Over the last 52 weeks, de Minaur is 13-5 on clay and has had some impressive runs already this season. De Minaur also has a higher clay-court Elo rating than Paul now.
This matchup is rough for Paul because the two of them are similar players, but de Minaur is just a little better at everything. The Australian is a better returner, has a better forehand and also happens to be a little clearer in how he wants to play points.
The returning is a big one here. It can be very difficult to hold serve in these conditions, and Paul isn’t the greatest server in the world. So, if the American is having an off day with the ball on his racquet, de Minaur might just break his spirit a little bit.
Pick: De Minaur -1.5 Games (-129 – 1.5 units)
Peyton Stearns vs. Elina Svitolina
Svitolina didn’t look great in her matches against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro and Hailey Baptiste here, but she bounced back and looked phenomenal in a 6-4, 6-2 win over Danielle Collins in the Round of 16. The Ukrainian has now won 12 of the 13 matches she has played since getting to Europe for the clay-court swing. That one loss was a competitive match against world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka in Madrid.
It’s just hard not to like Svitolina to keep things going, and that’s especially true against an inferior opponent. Svitolina is a much better player than Stearns, and that’s true on a good day. But how about one day after Stearns was puking all over the court after a win over Naomi Osaka? Are we sure the American is going to have anything left? I have my doubts, so I’m laying the games.
Pick: Svitolina -3.5 Games (-120)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
