On Saturday, May 17th, Jasmine Paolini will face Coco Gauff in the finals of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. Casual bettors will see this match and think Gauff is a lock to win, but you simply can’t count Paolini out. She has been a force on the WTA Tour over the last 52 weeks, and she’s an Italian playing in Rome. The entire crowd at the Foro Italico will be pulling for Paolini to win this one, and that’s not something that can be discounted. That said, keep reading for a look at how Paolini versus Gauff will go down at the Italian Open.
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Jasmine Paolini vs. Coco Gauff Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Friday, May 16th at 1:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Gauff -200, Paolini +160
Spread: Gauff -3.5 Games (-120), Paolini +3.5 Games (-110)
Total: Over 20.5 Games (-120), Under 20.5 Games (-115)
How To Watch Jasmine Paolini vs. Coco Gauff
Where: Foro Italico in Rome, Italy
When: Saturday, May 17th at 11:00 am ET
Channel: Tennis Channel / Tennis Channel App
Jasmine Paolini vs. Coco Gauff Predictions
Paolini beat Gauff in straight sets in Stuttgart last month, so we know for a fact the Italian can beat the American. Having said that, doing so in a massive final, with Gauff coming into this one on a really nice run of form, will be completely different. There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Paolini here. She has won a 1000-level title before, but this is Rome. And while that means the crowd will be behind her, it also means an expectation that she will give the fans what they want. That could lead to some uncomfortable moments at some point in the match. But I do think she’ll overcome that, and I think Gauff will help her do it.
Gauff just played one of the ugliest matches I’ve seen in a very long time. In her win over Qinwen Zheng in the semifinals, Gauff had 15 double faults and the WTA’s official stats credited her with 82 unforced errors over three sets. Of course, the American deserves all the credit in the world for grinding out a win, which is something she has always been very good at. But she has had a double fault percentage of at least 11.1% in two of her last five matches. And giving away free points — and sometimes full service games — is a really easy way to gift your opponent a set.
Paolini also happens to be the best clay-court returner in the world right now. Over the last 52 weeks, her break percentage on the dirt is 51.6%. So, she’s going to add to Gauff’s service woes by putting pressure on the American to land first serves.
Realistically, as long as Paolini doesn’t have a disastrous day from the back of the court, she should win at least one set. She has done so in two of her three career meetings with Gauff, and it’s a matchup that does serve her well. Gauff is one of the sport’s ultimate battlers along the baseline, but Paolini is right there in that category. She loves getting into long rallies and slowly giving herself advantages. And if Paolini doesn’t let the moment get to her, the crowd should help her outlast Gauff in some of those long rallies. The American is always prone to missing badly from the forehand side, and having the crowd against her will only add to that. She’s used to having the full support of the crowd in every building she plays in.
Gauff is definitely a better player than Paolini when both of these players are playing their best tennis, but there’s context here that is impossible to ignore. Gauff’s struggles, combined with Paolini being the home favorite, make it hard to imagine this being a straightforward match. And I really don’t think a Paolini win can be ruled out. She has accomplished a lot over the last two years, but winning a singles title at home would be the biggest achievement of her career.
Pick: Paolini +1.5 Sets (-143 – 1.5 units) & Paolini ML (+185 – 0.5 units)
