After one of the most impressive performances in tennis history, world No. 1 Jannik Sinner will look to beat Tommy Paul and book a spot in the Internazionali BNL d’Italia finals. Sinner just beat Casper Ruud, one of the best clay-court players in the world, 6-0, 6-1 and has to be feeling like he’s due for his first big clay-court title. And the Italian winning it in Rome would be extra special. But Paul is no slouch, and he always plays elite players well. With that in mind, keep reading for some thoughts on how the meeting between Paul and Sinner will go down in Rome.
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Tommy Paul vs. Jannik Sinner Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Thursday, May 15th at 10:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sinner -900, Paul +600
Spread: Sinner -5.5 Games (+100), Paul +5.5 Games (-135)
Total: Over 19.5 Games (-135), Under 19.5 Games (+100)
How To Watch Tommy Paul vs. Jannik Sinner
Where: Foro Italico in Rome, Italy
When: Friday, May 16th at 2:30 pm ET
Channel: Tennis Channel / Tennis Channel App
Tommy Paul vs. Jannik Sinner Predictions
To borrow from the movie Diggstown: What Sinner did in his match against Ruud couldn’t be done. Taking on one of the best clay-court players in the world, fresh off a title run in Madrid, there were reasons to expect a battle. On top of Ruud just being in fantastic form, Sinner’s suspension meant that he hadn’t been this deep in a tournament since January. That’s ultimately why I ended up putting in some plays on the Norwegian. I understand how good of a player Sinner is, and I have been very high on his fit on clay for a long time. However, I really thought a lack of match play would catch up to the Italian, causing him to feel everything in his legs and lungs. But that wasn’t the case at all. Instead, Sinner won 6-0, 6-1 in just about an hour and a half. He also turned in the best performance of the year, according to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations. They gave him a Performance Rating of 9.62, meaning he was bordering on perfect.
The issue now is that the entire betting public is going to have the Italian to cover the 5.5-game spread against Paul. And if it’s not that, they’re going to take the Under on the game total. And while it’s not crazy to expect Sinner to roll to a win in this one, it is important to remember that there’s no such thing as an easy bet. If everybody’s on one side of things, that usually means the opposite is about to happen. Well, how about trying to get in between? Taking the Over on Sinner’s individual game total of 12.5 allows Sinner to win somewhat comfortably, but it also accounts for Paul keeping one of the two sets tight.
If Paul can just win five or six games in either of the first two sets, this play would cash in a straight-set Sinner win. Or, if Paul somehow manages to sneak a set, this would hit easily — as long as the American doesn’t win in straights himself.
Of course, taking this means believing in Paul to find a way into this match, and that’s a little hard to imagine after Thursday. But it’s important to remember that nobody is as good or bad as their last performance. In Sinner’s case, it’ll be nearly impossible to match the level he found in the quarterfinals. He might not play another match like that all season, which is insane considering how good he is. Also, while Paul isn’t as good of a clay-court talent as Ruud, the American will scrap away at every game. He won’t get caught laughing about how good his opponent is, accepting defeat after a slow start. Paul is going to change some things up and dig in to try to make Sinner work a little harder for everything.
Something else to keep in mind is that Sinner is going to be under immense pressure to handle his business and get to the final. But Paul is one of the best returners in the world, as only two players on the ATP Tour have a higher break percentage than his 29.0% over the last 52 weeks. Well, if Sinner is missing spots, or just off as a server for any reason, Paul will apply even more pressure and give himself some break point opportunities.
Realistically, if Paul just gets hot as a server for one single set, this should be golden. That’s why I’m playing it this way. And if you’re wondering why I’m going this route instead of the Over, or the game spread, that’s because it really wouldn’t be surprising if Paul has one absolute stinker of a set. He was broken three times in the opening set of his match against Hubert Hurkacz last match, and that was Hubert Hurkacz. If he has a set like that here, Sinner will either bagel or breadstick him. That’d be enough to kill a total or spread play.
Pick: Sinner Over 12.5 Games Won (+110)
